The report shows a clear split between aggressive fund buying in grains and liquidation in livestock. Managed money added 30,732 corn contracts, 28,827 soybean meal, 25,527 Chicago wheat and 23,801 soybean oil, leaving funds especially long soybean oil at 113,029 contracts. Corn’s open interest fell while funds bought heavily, suggesting much of the rally was short covering, while rising open interest in wheat, soybeans and canola points to more fresh speculative participation. Commercial producers increased short hedges across nearly every grain market, indicating they used the rally to lock in prices. In livestock, funds cut nearly 17,000 live-cattle longs and 3,810 feeder-cattle longs, confirming the recent liquidation pressure, while lean hog funds increased their net short to 30,438 contracts. Overall, the grain positioning is supportive but increasingly crowded in soybean oil, while cattle positioning remains vulnerable until fund selling slows.
President Trump sharply escalated tensions with China by accusing Beijing of stealing information on 220 million U.S. voters and interfering in the 2020 election. China called the allegations fabricated and denied any involvement. Trump announced no immediate tariffs or sanctions, but the rhetoric increases headline risk around the fragile U.S.–China trade truce and President Xi’s expected September visit. For agriculture, the immediate impact is limited, but soybeans are most exposed if the dispute begins affecting Chinese purchase commitments or broader trade negotiations.
President Trump said he plans to call Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney over wildfire smoke entering the United States, calling the recurring problem “willful negligence” and arguing that its economic cost should be added to existing tariffs on Canada. The comments raise another source of U.S.–Canada trade tension, but for now they represent a threat rather than a formal tariff action. Markets will watch for Carney’s response and whether the issue becomes part of the broader USMCA negotiations, potentially affecting Canadian lumber, energy, metals and agricultural trade.
Ending Brazil’s Soy Moratorium could allow roughly 1.4 million additional hectares of Amazon land to be cleared by 2035, potentially expanding soybean production and generating an estimated 745 million tonnes of additional carbon emissions. China appears willing to rely on Brazil’s existing environmental laws, which could reduce commercial resistance from Brazil’s largest soybean buyer, while European retailers and environmental groups are pressuring grain companies to maintain stricter standards. For markets, the change could increase Brazil’s long-term soybean acreage and export capacity, adding bearish competitive pressure to U.S. soybeans, although European sourcing restrictions and reputational risks may create separate premiums for verified deforestation-free supplies.
Brazil’s real is becoming more vulnerable as political risk begins to outweigh support from Brazil’s high interest rates. U.S. tariffs appear to be strengthening President Lula’s domestic position by allowing him to campaign against foreign economic pressure, while a Lula victory would likely keep U.S.–Brazil relations strained and limit tariff relief. For agricultural markets, a weaker real would encourage Brazilian farmers to sell more soybeans and corn, improve Brazil’s export competitiveness and create a headwind for U.S. prices, especially if USD/BRL remains above 5.00.
Safras expects Brazil’s 2026/27 corn planted area to fall 1.3%, while soybean acreage is projected to rise 1.2%, pointing to a modest shift from corn into soybeans. The corn estimate is mildly supportive for deferred prices because it reduces production potential, particularly if weather limits yields, while the soybean expansion adds longer-term supply pressure. The acreage changes are relatively small, however, so planting weather, second-crop corn timing and Chinese demand will ultimately determine the market impact.
Safras expects Brazil’s 2026/27 corn planted area to fall 1.3%, while soybean acreage is projected to rise 1.2%, pointing to a modest shift from corn into soybeans. The corn estimate is mildly supportive for deferred prices because it reduces production potential, particularly if weather limits yields, while the soybean expansion adds longer-term supply pressure. The acreage changes are relatively small, however, so planting weather, second-crop corn timing and Chinese demand will ultimately determine the market impact.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the EU-China trade relationship has become increasingly unbalanced and cannot continue in its current form, although he stressed that Germany does not want a new trade conflict with Beijing. The comments are notable given Germany’s long reliance on export-led growth and large trade surpluses, but they highlight growing concern that subsidized Chinese production and rising imports are pressuring European manufacturers. The message points toward a tougher, more coordinated EU approach to China, with negotiations and targeted trade protections more likely than an immediate escalation.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Germany plan to establish a joint China policy roadmap by September, signaling tighter European coordination on trade and strategic competition with Beijing. Macron also urged Iran to honor its agreement with the United States and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while promoting a stronger European nuclear deterrence strategy. The comments are modestly supportive for energy-market stability but remain headline risk until Hormuz shipping fully normalizes.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary July survey was modestly market-friendly: consumer sentiment improved to 54.4, signaling households became somewhat less pessimistic, while one-year inflation expectations fell sharply to 4.2% from 4.6%. Longer-term expectations held at 3.3%, however, showing inflation concerns remain sticky beneath the surface. The drop in near-term expectations pushed Treasury yields lower and is mildly supportive for bonds and equities, but the still-elevated five-to-ten-year reading means the report is not a full green light for the Fed to ease policy.
U.S. June industrial data came in slightly softer than expected. Industrial production rose just 0.1% month over month versus the 0.2% forecast, while factory output was unchanged compared with expectations for a 0.1% gain. Capacity utilization held at 76.1%, just below the 76.2% estimate, and May utilization was revised down one-tenth. Overall, the report points to sluggish manufacturing activity and limited inflation pressure from the industrial sector.
Corn
B 2000 z 540 c 6
S 900 z 510 c 10
B 200 x 500/550 cs vs s 425 p 2 ½ db
B 1000 u 420 p vs s 2000 u 400 p 1 7/8 db
S 2500 u 425 c vs b 5000 u 450 c 1 7/8 to 1 ½ cr
S 300 v 435/410 ps 4 1/4
B 1000 x 480 c vs s 440 p 5 to 5 ½ db
B 2500 u 420 p 4 ¾ to 4 7/8
B 1000 u 450 c 10 1/4
S 700 sd u 430/460 cs 20 3/4
B 400 z 550 c 5 3/8
S 1000 sd u 460 p 3 1/2
B 500 w1 aug 460/490 cs 3 3/4
B 1000 z 470/520 cs 12 7/8 to 13
S 1000 z 500 c 12 3/8 to 11 7/8
S 400 v 470 c 16 ½ to 16
S 200 z 480 c 17 1/4
S 400 u 440 p 12 7/8
S 350 z 465 straddles 47 1/8
On a block
B 500 u 470 c 5 3/8
S 500 z 425 p 7 1/8 vs 464 1/2
B 1000 z 500 c vs s z 420 p 5 ¼ db
Beans
S 100 f 1180 p 30 1/2
S 1000 x 1280/1300 cs 3 3/8
B 1300 sd q 1202 straddles 21 1/2
B 750 v 1300/1370 cs 5 5/8
B 800 u 1200 c 22 ¾ to 22 7/8
B 1000 x 1400 c 5 1/8 to 5 1/2
B 200 sd q 1190 p 6 1/4
B 400 v 1200 c 34 1/4
Soymeal
B 1500 v 340 c 3.70 to 4.00
S 150 z 320 p 15.00
Bean oil
B 300 u 71/74 cs 1.695
B 200 q 76 c .735 v 7511
B 300 f 75 c vs s 600 f 85 c .940 db
S 250 w1 aug 68/70/73/75 iron condors 1.113 to 1.112
B 100 z 80 c 1.645
S 300 q 73 c vs b 600 q 76 c .810 cr
B 150 u 8650 c .175
B 600 f 120 c .150 to .160
B 400 q 7150 p .210
On a block
B 350 z 72 c 4.190 vs 7242
Wheat
B 500 u 630 p 9 1/4
S 500 u 630 p 10
S 2500 u 650/700 cs 22 ¾ to 21 3/4
S 750 u 750/1000 cs 10 1/2
B 2000 u 730 c 16 5/8 to 16 3/4
B 1400 u 550 p ¾ vs 679 1/2
S 1000 u 700 c 24 to 22
S 2000 u 650/750 cs vs b 4000 u 800 c 19 3/8 to 19 cr vs 676
B 500 u 700/730 cs vs s 610 p 3 db
B 100 h 850/900 cs 6 3/4
B 400 v 78 c 1.240
B 200 u 720/770 cs 8 3/4
On a block
B 500 u 760 c 11
B 300 z 700 c 27 ¾ vs 690 1/2
Kc wheat
B 300 u 900 c 5
S 250 u 730 c 34 to 33
B 150 q 685 p 3 5/8 to 3 3/4
S 200 q 675 p 2 1/8
B 150 z 850/900 cs 7 3/8
Hogs
Bought 900 Feb 80/85 strangle paid 7.30 up to 7.40
Sold 500 Aug 100 calls @ 2.5750 down to 2.2250
Sold 300 Oct 84/90 call spread @ 3.225 down to 3.20
Sold 200 Oct 91 calls @ 2.125 down to 2.10
Bought 300 Nov 70 puts paid 1.10
Bought 200 Nov 71 puts paid 1.275
Bought 100 Oct 82/80 put spread paid .475
Sold 100 Oct 81/93 strangle @ 2.50 down to 2.45
Bought 300 Aug 97 puts paid .30 up to .65
Bought 300 Nov 70 puts paid 1.10
Bought 200 Nov 71 puts paid 1.275
Bought 100 Oct 82/80 put spread paid .475
Sold 100 Oct 81/93 strangle @ 2.50 down to 2.45
Bought 300 Aug 97 puts paid .30 up to .65
Live Cattle
Bought 300 june 240 calls 3.850
Bought 500 Aug 235 calls paid .60 up to .625
Bought 200 Aug 225 calls paid 3.0750 up to 3.10
Bought 500 Aug 215 puts paid .65 up to .80
Sold 200 Aug 245 puts @ 20.80
Sold 100 Aug/Sept 236/220 call spread @ 5.675 down to 5.625
Bought 1500 Aug 235 calls paid 8.250 up to 8.50
Bought 1200 Aug 240/230 put spread paid 8.35 up to 8.60
Bought 500 Oct 228/240 call spread v. 202 puts paid 1.90 up to 2.05
Bought 500 Dec 228/242 call spread v. 200 puts paid 1.90 up to 2.10
Sold 200 Feb 230/224 put spreads @ 3.15 down to 3.10
Sold 500 Aug 228 calls @ 3.00 down to 2.475
Bought 150 Oct 238/246 call spread paid .95
Bought 150 Oct 220/210 put spread paid 2.975 up to 3.150
Sold 300 Dec 230/220 put spreads @ 5.025 down to 5.00
Bought 500 Oct 230/240 call spread 1x2 paid 1.00
Bought 1500 Aug 235 calls paid 8.250 up to 8.50
Bought 1200 Aug 240/230 put spread paid 8.35 up to 8.60
Bought 500 Oct 228/240 call spread v. 202 puts paid 1.90 up to 2.05
Bought 500 Dec 228/242 call spread v. 200 puts paid 1.90 up to 2.10
Sold 200 Feb 230/224 put spreads @ 3.15 down to 3.10
Sold 500 Aug 228 calls @ 3.00 down to 2.475
Bought 150 Oct 238/246 call spread paid .95
Bought 150 Oct 220/210 put spread paid 2.975 up to 3.150
Sold 300 Dec 230/220 put spreads @ 5.025 down to 5.00
Bought 500 Oct 230/240 call spread 1x2 paid 1.00
Feeder Cattle
Bought 100 Aug 370 calls paid 1.00 up to 1.025
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