Daily Coffee Report 6/5/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
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CeCafe: Brazil’s June Green Coffee Exports Fall 19% Year on Year
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CeCafe: Brazil’s June Green Coffee Exports Fall 19% Year on Year
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The latest data from the Brazil Coffee Export Association (CeCafe) showed that Brazil exported 2.3 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in June, down 19% from the 2.8 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year.
Arabica exports totaled 2 million 60-kg bags, down 23.3% from the 2.7 million 60-kg bags exported in June 2022. Robusta exports totaled 230,653 60-kg bags, up 60.5% from the 143,741 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
Since the start of the 2023 calendar year, exports now total 14.3 million bags, a 21.1% decline from the 18.1 million bags exported in January to June in 2022.
June also marked the end of Brazil’s July to June coffee year, with total exports of 35.626 million bags for the period, a decrease of 10.2% compared to the 39.691 million bags registered between July 2021 and June last year. Foreign exchange revenue totaled $8.135 billion in the current range, remaining roughly flat from the $8.136 billion achieved in the previous cycle.
According to the president of Cecafé, Márcio Ferreira, with the entry of the new crop of canéfora coffee (conilon and robusta) – whose harvest begins before the work of collecting Arabica – and the most competitive differentials in the market, exports of this variety rose in June, being the only one to present positive performance in the month.
On the other hand, he believes that the fall in Arabica shipments evidences the end of the 2022/23 harvest and the little volume available from the last two cycles, which were impacted by weather adversities. "The shipments of this variety abroad should improve with the entry of the new crop, since the recovery of the crops was higher than expected and the ongoing harvest, although still below the record of 2020, will be higher than those of 2021 and 2022," he says.
This greater supply of Arabica, according to Ferreira, has already caused the Brazilian industry to change the composition of its blends, from once 80% of conilon and 20% of Arabica, to possible 55%-45% of conilon and 45%-55% of Arabica. "If we consider that Brazil consumes approximately 21 million bags, we are talking about a possible reduction of 6.3 million bags of conilon in domestic consumption in the period of one year," he analyzes.
The president of Cecafé explains that this change in the composition of the blends of the national industries is due to the "continuous increase in the quality of Brazilian canéforas coffees" and, mainly, by the market factor. "When the conilon was between R $ 750 and R $ 850 a bag, the Arabica (hard drink, 600 defects) for the industry was worth R $ 1,000 to R $ 1,300. Today, this Arabica is around R $ 700 a bag and conilon to R $ 640.”
According to him, the reason for the current strength of the international robusta/conilon market is due to the crash in Indonesia and some end-of-cycle problems in Vietnam. "However, not much loss is estimated in the Vietnamese harvest to be harvested in November, whose shipments will increase from next January," he projected.
Ferreira adds that, if favorable weather conditions remain, the forecast is for the possibility of a substantial Arabica harvest in Brazil in 2024, as well as no sharp drop in canéfora coffees.
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