Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
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CeCafe: Talk of Importing Coffee ‘Premature’ for Brazil Amid Possible Supply Shortage
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CeCafe: Talk of Importing Coffee ‘Premature’ for Brazil Amid Possible Supply Shortage
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – There is a lot of pressure on Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. As global demand recovers post pandemic, including that of internal consumption in Brazil, the world’s second largest consumer, the question of “will Brazil’s production be enough?” becomes more important.
Brazil jumped from 35% to 40% of the world demand for coffee between the years 2016 and 2020, Marcos Matos, General Director of Cecafé, Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Association, tells CoffeeNetwork in an interview. Brazil exports to more than 120 countries globally.
“Despite the record crop achieved by the country last year, harvesting a record harvest of 63.1 million bags (2020) and boosting exports to reach historic levels in shipments for the calendar year (44.7 million bags) and the harvest year (45.6 million bags), the country is facing a challenge with the new crop in the 2021/22 harvest,” he explained.
The domestic market has needed to adapt to both supply changes and price fluctuations as a result. “Changes in blends in the domestic market are already being observed, due to the difficulties mentioned in relation to the smaller harvest of Arabica coffee,” Matos said. “Despite this, Brazil has an efficient and organized production chain, which has always allowed the country to adapt to challenging times, guaranteeing the supply of its domestic market and maintaining its international commitments.”
However, should the new crop be severely impacted by adverse weather while demand grows steadily, the need for Brazil to import coffee may increase. In 2017, the Brazilian government allowed for the importation of up to 1 million bags of Robusta coffee from Vietnam following a poor crop and supply shortage.
“From the business point of view, the release of imports allows the attraction of investments from new industries, with the objective of forming for diverse blends,” says Matos. “Take a look at Mexico, a country that is also a producer and has the second largest soluble coffee plant of a large company and, today, stands out among the main buyers of green coffee in Brazil.”
He emphasizes, however, that it is still very premature to talk about coffee imports. “We believe that, at the right time, the coffee sectors in Brazil will come together to seek to mitigate the problems that affect the supply of Brazilian coffee.”
Looking Ahead
While the developing crop was said to have been adversely impacted by both drought and frost, CeCafe’s expectation is that weather conditions will become more regular and will contribute to better crops with higher volumes in the coming years.
In terms of exports, “it is unlikely that coffee exports will remain at high levels in the coming months, as there is a serious global logistical problem, which has been impacting Brazilian agribusiness shipments, such as frequent booking cancellations (space reservations for containers on ships), cargo rollovers and reduced availability of containers,” says Matos. “Despite the logistical challenges, the export trade has been making great efforts to guarantee its shipments and the internal supply of the country's roasting industry.
Conab recently released the third estimate for the 2021/2022 coffee crop year, with a projected harvest of 46.9 million bags, and Cecafé is still awaiting the release of stocks to correctly assess the availability of the coffee supply Brazilian.
“Therefore, with regard to exports, it is noted that only logistical challenges have been imposing limitations on coffee shipments from Brazil, at least until now,” says Matos.
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Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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