By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Fertilizer markets are entering 2026 with supply risk defined by timing rather than absolute resource availability. Phosphate availability is increasingly governed by export policy, while nitrogen capacity depends on long-term investment and political alignment. These forces are not moving in sync, creating uneven pressure across nutrients and regions. The result is a market grappling with immediate constraints alongside deferred optimism.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, examines how China’s phosphate export strategy and potential nitrogen expansion in the Americas are shaping fertilizer supply across vastly different time horizons.
China’s influence over phosphate markets is rooted in its position as the largest exporter globally. Linville emphasizes that “the phosphate market China is the biggest player on the block”, underscoring how concentrated supply remains. When exports are delayed or restricted, global markets quickly reprice scarcity. This makes policy signals from Beijing a dominant driver of fertilizer prices heading into 2026.
In contrast to phosphate, nitrogen production depends on infrastructure, investment, and political stability. Linville notes that Venezuela holds “one of the biggest oil reserves in the world” and significant resource potential, but unlocking that capacity is not immediate. He cautions that “this is not a short-term event”, highlighting the years required to rebuild trust, partnerships, and production. As a result, nitrogen markets may see long-term promise without near-term relief.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer, StoneX
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