Bloomberg Commodity Index is up a little over 2%.
January's first week of U.S. export inspections highlights robust front-loaded demand, with corn leading and diverse buyers on board. Corn inspections reached 1.207 MMT, driven primarily by Japan (294k) and Mexico (243k). Secondary demand from Guatemala, Taiwan, and Colombia indicates U.S. corn's broad appeal in Pacific and Latin American markets. Soybean inspections totaled 981k MT, with China lifting 40% of the total (397k MT), despite Brazil’s impending harvest. Additional soybean demand from Egypt, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Tunisia also remains steady. In contrast, wheat inspections lagged at 183k MT, dominated by Mexico (71k) and the Philippines (66k), reflecting ongoing competitiveness issues. Overall, this country mix supports a bullish tone for nearby corn and soybean logistics—especially at the Gulf—while wheat remains weak without a clear demand catalyst.
December's ISM manufacturing report shows continued contraction, with the PMI falling to 47.9 from 48.2 in November, indicating ongoing shrinkage in U.S. manufacturing. Production edged down to 51.0, barely remaining in expansion, while new orders rose slightly to 47.7, still contractionary. Employment inched up to 44.9, but factory labor remains weak. Inventories dropped sharply to 45.2, suggesting destocking continues. Prices stayed steady at 58.5, reflecting persistent inflation pressures. Overall, the report highlights factory malaise, with no signs of a rebound: soft demand, cautious hiring, and inventory drawdowns persist, while prices remain sticky.
The U.S. export sales report from January 5 revealed varied grain demand. Soybean sales were notably robust, reaching 1.244 million metric tons, emphasizing strong demand from China. Corn sales were solid at 756,400 tons, showcasing U.S. competitiveness despite South American supply. However, wheat sales were weak at 104,800 tons, reflecting sluggish demand amid global competition. Soymeal sales were decent at 110,600 tons for 2025/26 and 41,800 tons for 2026/27. Conversely, bean oil sales were minimal at 6,200 tons, indicating continued softness in vegetable oil demand. Rice sales were steady at 23,000 tons. Overall, strong demand persists for U.S. soybeans and corn, while wheat and bean oil continue to lag.
Hogs
Bought 100 July 102/110 call spread paid 3.675
Sold 1000 Feb 84 puts @ .9750 covered 86.20
Sold 100 Feb 90 calls @ .5750 covered 86.350
Sold 300 July 104/98 put spread @ 2.20 down to 2.175
Bought 400 Feb 84/80 put spread 1x2 paid .40
Sold 250 June 94 puts @ 1.6250 covered 104.00
Bought 300 July 118 calls paid 1.1750
Live Cattle
Bought 750 Feb 225 puts paid 1.1250 up to 1.1750
Bought 200 April 224 puts paid 3.175
Bought 250 Feb 226/236 call spread paid 7.175 up to 7.20
Bought 200 April 220 puts paid 2.325 up to 2.35
Bought 300 Feb 221/216 put spread paid .30
Sold 200 June 240 calls @ 5.85 down to 5.750
Bought 150 June 180 puts paid .6750
Bought 150 June 220 puts paid 5.30 covered 231.50
Sold 250 Aug 216 puts @ 6.70 down to 6.6750 covered 227.750
Bought 400 April 220/200 put spread paid 1.80 up to 1.85
Bought 500 Feb 230/216 put spread paid 1.775 up to 1.80
Bought 400 Feb 236/229 put spread 1x2 paid .525 up to .55
Sold 200 April 240/220 combo @ 3.025 down to 3.00 Selling the call
Bought 450 Feb 236/230/227 put tree paid .725 up to .750
Bought 150 Feb 235/230 put spread paid 1.825
Feeder Cattle
Sold 100 March 360/370 call spread @ 4.10
Bought 500 March 356/352 put spread paid 1.75 up to 1.825
Bought 500 Aug 290 puts paid 5.00 On A Block
sources:
news-bloomberg
option data-globex
vols-bloomberg
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