China is escalating economic pressure on Japan by signaling tighter dual-use export controls that threaten Japan’s industrial base, particularly in critical inputs like rare earths and graphite. While the measures are not yet fully implemented, the leverage is significant: China supplies up to 90% of Japan’s heavy rare earths and dominates exports of graphite essential for battery production, underscoring Japan’s vulnerability. The move is widely seen as retaliation for Japan’s stance on Taiwan and as a test of U.S. support for a key Asian ally. Japan is trying to avoid an outright escalation, but the imbalance is stark—China accounts for over 20% of Japan’s trade, while Japan represents only about 5% of China’s. Although Tokyo retains some counter-leverage in semiconductor materials such as photoresists and ABF film, any retaliation risks economic blowback and would test Japan’s political willingness to engage in a broader economic confrontation.
U.S. grain export inspections for the week ending January 22 were mixed but remain constructive overall. Total inspections reached 3.31 MMT, slightly below the prior week but well above last year’s pace. Corn inspections increased to 1.51 MMT, with Mexico the top destination, followed by Japan and Spain, reinforcing steady global demand despite rising South American competition. Soybean inspections eased to 1.32 MMT but were overwhelmingly China-driven, with China accounting for 897k MT, underscoring continued reliance on episodic Chinese buying even as seasonal flows shift to Brazil. Wheat inspections fell to 351k MT and remain soft versus last year, though Korea and Japan led weekly destinations. Overall, corn continues to carry the export complex, soybeans remain opportunistic and China-dependent, and wheat lags on competitiveness.
Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, declared that her country has “had enough” of what she called U.S. meddling in Venezuelan affairs, urging Washington to stop issuing “orders” and respect Venezuela’s sovereignty after the United States led a military operation in early January that ousted and captured Nicolás Maduro. Rodríguez, speaking to oil workers, rejected external interference in domestic politics and emphasized resolving internal conflicts through Venezuelan-led dialogue, even as the U.S. has signaled ongoing involvement in the country’s oil sector and transition. Her remarks reflect growing tension between Caracas and Washington amid a fraught political and diplomatic standoff following the controversial intervention.
Canada is signaling a strategic shift away from China while strengthening ties with India, aiming to manage U.S. trade pressure and reduce geopolitical risk. Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized that Canada has no plans to pursue a broad free-trade agreement with China, a move intended to reassure Washington amid heightened scrutiny and threats of aggressive tariffs. Meanwhile, Carney’s anticipated early-March visit to India highlights a “safe diversification” strategy, focusing on energy, uranium, critical minerals, and technology cooperation through specific agreements rather than sweeping FTAs. Collectively, these actions reflect an effort to diversify trade without provoking U.S. retaliation, positioning India as a preferred alternative partner as access to China becomes increasingly restricted under U.S. trade and security frameworks. Given this context, you would think his first priority would be to work on fixing the relationship with the U.S.
Hogs
Bought 1000 April 90 puts paid .90 up to .95
Bought 800 April 100 calls paid 1.70 up to 1.875
Sold 650 Feb 80 puts @ .025
Bought 250 April 90 puts paid .975 up to 1.05
Bought 500 June 118 calls paid 1.55 up to 1.60
Bought 250 June 94 puts paid .750
Bought 700 April 90 puts paid .95 up to .9750 2000 All Day
Sold 275 May 100/96 put spread @ 1.55
Bought 250 June 108/104 put spreads paid 1.475
Bought 300 Dec 84/92 call spreads v. 72 puts paid .425 up to .450 Buying the call spread
Sold 250 April 88 puts @ .70 down to .6750
Bought 100 oct 84p/94c strangles 6.475
Live Cattle
Bought 400 April 223 puts paid 1.575 up to 1.775
Sold 150 Feb 236/230 put spreads @ 1.75 down to 1.725
Sold 100 June 182 puts @ .425
Sold 100 March 236 calls @ 5.225
Sold 150 Feb 232/230 put spreads @ .425 down to .3750
Bought 150 Feb 228/223 put spread paid .275
Bought 300 Feb 230/220 put spread paid .475 up to .50
Bought 150 Feb 229/219 put spread paid .325
Bought 500 Feb 232/233 call spread paid .750
Sold 250 Feb 240 calls @ .725
Sold 250 Feb 230 puts @ .650
Bought 250 March 225 puts paid 1.00
Bought 350 April 240 calls paid 4.825
Feeder Cattle
Bough 100 March/April 360/358 put spread Diag. paid 2.80 up to 2.925
Bought 500 March 360/345 put spread paid 4.725 up to 4.850
Bought 100 March/April 344 put spread Calen. Paid 3.075 up to 3.10
| Lean Hogs | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| LHG6 | 88.300 | -0.050 | 88 | 10.2 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 0.57 | 0.96 | 17.28 | 23 |
| LHH6 | 96.725 | 0.550 | 97 | 18.2 | 0.20 | 1.65 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 17.88 | 46 |
| LHJ6 | 96.725 | 0.550 | 97 | 17.1 | 0.10 | 1.65 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 17.88 | 81 |
| LHK6 | 100.225 | 0.675 | 100 | 17.6 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 0.90 | 14.22 | 112 |
| LHM6 | 109.125 | 0.625 | 110 | 17.3 | 0.10 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 0.78 | 11.28 | 141 |
| Live Cattle | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| LCG6 | 236.025 | 1.125 | 236 | 14.3 | 0.60 | 1.75 | 2.13 | 1.94 | 13.05 | 11 |
| LCH6 | 238.000 | 1.075 | 238 | 14.0 | -0.20 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 1.93 | 12.87 | 39 |
| LCJ6 | 238.000 | 1.075 | 238 | 14.3 | -0.10 | 1.80 | 2.14 | 1.93 | 12.87 | 66 |
| LCK6 | 233.625 | 1.125 | 234 | 15.1 | -0.10 | 1.60 | 2.22 | 1.83 | 12.42 | 95 |
| LCM6 | 233.625 | 1.125 | 234 | 15.1 | -0.10 | 1.60 | 2.22 | 1.83 | 12.42 | 130 |
| Feeder Cattle | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| FCF6 | 366.700 | 1.900 | 367 | 9.5 | 0.70 | 2.38 | 2.19 | 2.88 | 12.45 | 4 |
| FCH6 | 362.600 | 2.425 | 362 | 16.0 | -0.10 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.71 | 16.22 | 60 |
| FCJ6 | 361.200 | 2.450 | 362 | 17.0 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 3.87 | 3.77 | 16.59 | 95 |
| FCK6 | 358.475 | 2.425 | 358 | 17.2 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 3.88 | 3.74 | 16.58 | 116 |
| FCQ6 | 357.550 | 2.225 | 358 | 17.3 | 0.00 | 3.38 | 3.90 | 3.59 | 15.94 | 214 |
sources
options data globex
news bloomberg
vols bloomberg
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