USDA’s Export Sales report showed solid beef demand, with 17,408 MT sold in the week of April 2—the third-largest weekly total of the year—led by strong buying from South Korea and Japan at 6,100 MT each. However, shipments slowed to a four-week low of 13,321 MT, with South Korea taking 4,600 MT and Japan 3,800 MT, pointing to firm forward demand but softer near-term export movement.
Wholesale boxed beef was mixed in Thursday afternoon trade, with the Choice/Select spread still inverted at 48 cents. Choice rebounded $1.43 to $381.09, while Select fell 70 cents to $381.57, keeping Select at a slight premium. On the supply side, Thursday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 105,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 425,000—down 4,000 from last week and 38,950 below the same week last year, continuing to reflect tighter year-over-year availability.
Pork export demand softened in the latest USDA data, with 31,347 MT of sales for the week of April 2 marking a four-week low, though Mexico remained the dominant buyer at 14,700 MT, followed by Japan at 3,700 MT. Shipments were even weaker, falling to a calendar year low of 35,122 MT, with Mexico taking 14,400 MT and Japan 4,900 MT, signaling slower near-term movement. Despite that, the pork cutout edged higher by 47 cents to $97.38/cwt in Thursday afternoon trade, supported by strength in most primals outside of loins and picnics. On the supply side, Thursday’s hog slaughter was estimated at 495,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 1.848 million—down 117,000 from last week and 100,231 below last year, reflecting tighter production even as export flows slow.
China’s Commerce Ministry struck a constructive tone toward the EU, signaling openness to advancing and finalizing trade agreements, which points to a mutual effort to deepen ties and diversify away from the U.S. amid ongoing trade uncertainty. While both sides have been hedging and exploring alternative partnerships, the broader reality is that each maintains significant trade surpluses with the U.S.—and China with the rest of the world—meaning the status quo remains economically favorable. As a result, any shift is likely to be incremental rather than a wholesale realignment of global trade flows.
Geopolitical signals remain mixed and fluid, with U.S. and Iranian delegations set to begin direct talks Saturday, while reports suggest the U.S. has urged Israel to scale back strikes in Lebanon. Despite that, messaging out of Israel remains firm on continuing pressure against Hezbollah, and there is conflicting information on whether Israel-Lebanon talks will even take place, especially as Hezbollah has rejected any direct negotiations. Meanwhile, tensions across the Gulf continue to disrupt energy markets, with strikes impacting Saudi facilities and reducing oil output, and Iran’s IRGC outlining alternative shipping routes amid concerns over sea mines. Under the reported ceasefire framework, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would also be restricted to 15 ships per day, highlighting ongoing constraints and elevated risk to global energy flows.
Recent data shows a steady labor market alongside persistent inflation pressures. Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 219k, but continuing claims declined, indicating no clear signs of labor market weakening or impact from geopolitical tensions. February PCE inflation met expectations, with both headline and core rising 0.4% month-over-month and core at 3.0% year-over-year, still above the Fed’s target. Strength in goods inflation drove much of the increase, while personal income declined and spending came in softer than expected, suggesting demand was already slowing before the recent surge in energy prices, which is likely to push inflation higher in the near term.
Hogs
Bought 500 June 100 puts paid 1.425 covered 104.05 On A Block
Sold 400 June 104/98 puts spread @ 1.95 down to 1.90
Bought 150 June 101 puts paid 1.75 covered 104.025
Sold 300 June 100 puts @ 1.350 down to 1.325
Bought 125 June 104/98 put spread paid 1.95
Bought 200 June 102/110 call spreads paid 3.075 up to 3.125
Bought 250 Feb27 86/78 put spread v. 92 calls paid .10 up to .175
Bought 150 Dec 84/76 put spread v. 90 calls paid .60
Bought 100 July 106 puts paid 3.60
Bought 100 June 114 calls paid .4750
Bought 200 June 106 calls paid 2.075 up to 2.20
Sold 200 June 110 calls @ 1.025 down to 1.00
Live Cattle
Sold 600 June 236 puts @ 2.2750 down to 2.20
Sold 200 June 228 puts @ 1.150
Bought 400 May 247 calls paid 2.95 up to 3.2750
Bought 600 June 230/226 put spread paid .425
Bought 150 July 164 puts paid .075
Sold 150 Oct 236/230 put spread @ 2.05
Bought 150 Oct 204 puts paid 1.50
Sold 100 June 201 puts @ .225
Bought 500 June 270 calls paid .35
Bought 200 March 240/230/220 put fly paid .95
Bought 100 May 244/240 put spread paid 1.75
Feeder Cattle
Sold 100 Aug 410/420 call spread @ .90
Sold 125 Aug 400 calls @ 3.55 down to 3.525
Bought 150 May 330 puts paid .90 up to 1.00
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