CME Livestock Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Fri, 10 Apr 2026, 21:33

Livestock stands out as the strongest sector in the latest COT report, with managed money actively adding longs across the complex. Live cattle leads the way with funds adding 9,523 contracts to a net long of 133,265, while lean hogs saw an additional 3,853 contracts bringing their net long to 98,061 — both moving in the opposite direction of the grain complex. Feeder cattle is largely neutral with minimal movement from either side. The key dynamic in both live cattle and hogs is that funds are buying into commercial hedging pressure, which is typically a bullish signal, and neither market is at record positioning levels, meaning there is still room for managed money to add further. Livestock remains the clear preferred long in the commodity space right now.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signaled a balanced and flexible policy outlook, noting that a rate cut is possible if the Iran conflict de-escalates and oil prices retreat, but emphasizing the Fed would hold steady if inflation remains elevated. She highlighted that persistently high energy costs could weigh on growth, with early signs of consumers pulling back on spending like travel. Daly views current policy as appropriately restrictive to bring inflation down while still supporting a stable labor market, and sees lower odds of a rate hike relative to holding or cutting. Overall, she described the economy as fundamentally solid, with risks to inflation and employment now more evenly balanced as the Fed waits for greater clarity on geopolitical developments and energy markets.

Brazilian beef markets are showing early signs of margin stress, as JBS NV has temporarily halted production at two plants due to rising cattle costs. The decision highlights how sharply higher livestock prices are beginning to pressure packer margins, even in one of the world’s lowest-cost production regions. From a market perspective, this is a supportive signal for global beef prices, as reduced slaughter capacity and tighter margins can slow production and limit export availability. More broadly, the development reinforces the ongoing shift in leverage toward cattle producers, while increasing the risk of tighter near-term supply both domestically in Brazil and across global trade flows.

U.S. consumer sentiment has fallen to a record low, driven primarily by rising inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict rather than weakness in the labor market. The key shift is a notable increase in both short- and long-term inflation expectations, signaling that price pressures may be becoming more entrenched. This creates a stagflation-like backdrop where consumer demand begins to soften while inflation remains elevated, complicating the Fed’s ability to ease policy. For markets, it reinforces volatility across commodities, with supportive elements from inflation and energy, but growing concern about demand erosion, particularly on the consumer side.

Hogs

Sold 350 Aug 110/98 combo @ 1.55 down to 1.475 selling the call

Sold 300 June 102 puts @ 1.90 covered 104.350 On A Block

Bought 500 Oct 90/82 put spread v. 98 calls paid .20 up to .40

Bought 600 Dec 82/74 put spread v. 90 calls paid even up to .20 buying the put spread

Bought 350 April 91/92 call spread 1x2 paid .10 up to .15

Bought 100 June 107 calls paid 1.55

Sold 100 June 100 puts @ 1.50

Live Cattle

Bought 2000 June 252/248 put spread paid 1.90 up to 1.975

Sold 1500 May 245 @ 2.30 down to 2.25

Bought 900 June 234/222 put paid .975 up to 1.025

Bought 250 Oct 206 puts paid 1.50

Sold 1200 June 228 puts @ 1.10 down to .90

Sold 175 May 246/236 put spread @ 2.10 covered 247.475

Bought 200 Aug 240/218 put spread paid 4.50

Sold 200 May 244/236/228 put fly @ 1.0 down to.975

Bought 250 Dec 240 straddle paid 20.875 On A Block

Bought 300 May 249/245 put spread paid 1.375

Sold 500 June 192 puts @ .1250

Bought 150 Oct 250/252 call spread paid .675

Sold 350 Aug 224 puts @ 2.50

Bought 150 June 248 calls paid 5.60

Bought 250 June 246 calls paid 6.7750

Sold 100 May 245 puts @ 2.30 down to 2.275

Feeder Cattle

Bought 150 Aug 380/400 call spread 1x2 paid 2.57 On a Block

Sold 100 April 375 puts @ 4.7250 down to 4.2750

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Meats & Livestock

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 21

July 21 – The tech sector led stock futures higher overnight as investors anticipate major tech company earnings reports in the days ahead, while seemingly feeling immune to two wars half a world away that continue to escalate. It’s day #1,609 of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and day #144 of the war with Iran, with neither showing signs of culminating any time soon. These wars are in some of the world’s most critical locations for commodities essential for the global economy, and yet there remains little panic in the U.S. markets at this point. The VIX is trading below 18, while the dollar index trades near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.61% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.23%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mostly in negative territory overnight after weekly crop ratings largely came in above trade expectations on Monday afternoon.

Arlan SudermanTue, 21 Jul 2026, 13:27

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Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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Arlan SudermanMon, 20 Jul 2026, 13:47

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 17

July 17 – Chip stocks are again under pressure amid concerns about whether AI investments will meet expectations, leading to a roughly 2% selloff in Nasdaq futures this morning. The VIX elevated to a nine-day high above 19 this morning, while the dollar index traded near 100.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.14%. WTI crude oil pushed higher to trade near $82 per barrel, while Brent traded near $87 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher again overnight as Black Sea risks increase amid rising domestic and global demand prospects.

Arlan SudermanFri, 17 Jul 2026, 13:35

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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