CME Livestock Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Thu, 16 Apr 2026, 21:00

The U.S. is advancing trade discussions with Mexico ahead of the upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, as U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer travels to Mexico City for high-level meetings. The visit will include talks with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, signaling continued engagement between the two countries on trade policy, rules of origin, and broader economic cooperation. The timing underscores efforts to align positions and manage key issues before the formal USMCA review process.

Canada is signaling a push toward a broader, more comprehensive trade agreement with the U.S., rather than resolving disputes through smaller, one-off deals. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc indicated that Canada is willing to address longstanding U.S. concerns raised by Jamieson Greer, including its supply-managed dairy system and regulations impacting U.S. technology firms. However, any concessions would need to be part of a larger framework that reduces tariff pressures and provides more certainty ahead of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement review process, underscoring Canada’s preference for a coordinated reset of trade relations rather than piecemeal negotiations.

Fertilizer prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term, with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins indicating it could take “a couple months” before any meaningful relief materializes. The USDA is working to accelerate fertilizer movement and is preparing to deploy resources aimed at boosting production and supply, though officials caution that price declines will not happen quickly. The administration is actively engaging with major fertilizer companies, signaling a coordinated effort to address supply constraints, but the timeline suggests farmers will continue facing high input costs through much of the early growing season.

Trade estimates for the April 17 Cattle on Feed report point to a largely steady current supply picture with on-feed expected at 99.5% of last year, while placements are projected sharply lower at 92.9% following a strong February, signaling a slowdown in new cattle entering feedlots. Marketings are seen at 93.8%, reflecting solid but not aggressive movement. Overall, the setup suggests stable near-term supplies but a tightening pipeline ahead due to reduced placements, which is supportive for deferred cattle markets even if the front end remains relatively unchanged.

PepsiCo beat earnings and revenue expectations, driven by a recovery in salty snack volumes after recent price cuts. That rebound is supportive for agricultural demand, as higher snack production lifts usage of key inputs like potatoes, corn, and vegetable oils. Overall, it signals improving downstream food demand after a period of price-driven volume pressure.

Hogs

Sold 150 Dec 84 straddles @ 10.075

Bought 200 April27 90 puts paid 6.10 up to 6.15

Bought 250 Aug 110 calls paid 2.55 up to 2.625

Sold 300 Aug 96/88 put spreads @ 1.025

Sold 100 June 104/110/116 call fly @ .975

Sold 200 June 96 puts @ .925 covered 101.80 On a Block

Sold 400 July 96/84 put spread @ .90

Sold 200 June 108 puts @ 7.5 down to 7.35

Sold 350 June 104 calls @ 2.00 down to 1.875

Bought 200 Oct 90 puts paid 4.775 up to 4.85

Bought 100 July 100 puts paid 2.125 up to 2.250

Sold 200 July 96/82 put spreads @ .950 down to .875

Live Cattle

Sold 100 Oct 246 calls @ 5.825

Bought 500 Aug 250 calls paid 4.90 up to 5.225

Bought 250 Dec 240 straddles paid 21.80 On a Block

Sold 250 May 242/248/249/253 Iron Condor @ 3.30

Bought 700 May 246 puts paid 2.3250 up to 2.4750

Bought 250 June 242 puts paid 3.50 up to 3.55

Bought 500 Dec 240/Oct 232 put spread paid .05 up to .45

Sold 300 Aug 260/280 call spread @ 2.25 down to 2.025

Bought 200 June 238/234 put spreads paid .55

Sold 150 Dec 232/226 put spread @ 1.875

Sold 500 Feb 260 calls bought 500 Oct 240/232 put spreads @ .30 down to Even

Sold 200 Aug 260 calls @ 2.55

Bought 400 Aug 242/230 put spread paid 3.425 up to 3.45

Bought 300 May 250 puts paid 4.025 up to 4.050

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Meats & Livestock

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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