The June WASDE was mostly neutral to slightly heavier for corn, steady for soybeans, and modestly supportive for wheat. U.S. corn carryout came in almost exactly where the trade expected for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, but world corn stocks were raised above expectations, helped by larger South American production, including Brazil corn at 138 MMT versus the trade near 135.7 MMT. Soybeans were largely uneventful, with U.S. old-crop and new-crop carryout matching May, while world soybean stocks were just under trade expectations and Brazil production was left at 180 MMT. Wheat had the more supportive tone, with U.S. 2026/27 carryout cut to 744 million bushels versus 762 million in May and below the average trade estimate, while U.S. wheat production also came in below expectations across all wheat and winter wheat. Overall, the report did not deliver a major bullish surprise for corn or soybeans, but it reinforces a bigger global corn supply picture while giving wheat a slightly tighter domestic balance sheet.
The rates market is backing away from the idea that the Fed will hike again this year. That is a modestly supportive signal for risk assets because it suggests traders see slower growth, easing inflation pressure, or enough policy restraint already in place. For commodities, the read-through is mixed: a less hawkish Fed can pressure the dollar and support demand-sensitive markets, but the reason behind the repricing matters. If markets are removing hikes because growth is cooling, that could cap upside in energy and industrial commodities while offering only limited support to grains. Overall, this points to a market shifting away from inflation-fighting concerns and toward a softer-growth policy outlook.
The CDC’s move to a Level 3 emergency response for New World screwworm adds another layer of concern for the livestock market. While USDA continues to stress that the food supply remains safe, the higher emergency posture signals a more aggressive federal response around surveillance, containment, and eradication efforts. For cattle, the risk is less about immediate supply disruption and more about uncertainty: potential movement restrictions, added treatment costs, and the challenge of managing an outbreak while the U.S. cattle herd is already historically tight. This headline should keep traders focused on new case counts, geographic spread, and how quickly USDA can contain the issue.
May PPI came in hot at the headline level, reinforcing the idea that upstream cost pressures are rebuilding even if they have not fully reached the consumer yet. Headline PPI rose 1.1% in May, above expectations, with year-over-year inflation rising to 6.5%, while core PPI increased 0.4% and held at 4.9% from a year ago. Energy was the main driver, with gasoline up sharply tied to the Iran war, while higher fuel costs and capacity constraints also lifted transportation and warehousing costs. The key market takeaway is that several PPI components feed directly into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, due June 25, suggesting some upside risk to PCE. That keeps the Fed in a difficult spot: consumer demand may still be price sensitive, but producer-side inflation and service-cost pressures argue for staying on hold rather than moving quickly toward rate cuts.
The World Bank is warning that global food prices could face another upward shock if a strong El Niño develops, with crop production risk coming on top of already elevated fertilizer costs tied to the Iran war. The concern is that weather stress could hit agricultural output across key growing regions while input costs remain firm, creating a double squeeze for food supply chains. For grain and oilseed markets, this keeps weather risk premium alive, especially if El Niño begins to threaten yields or disrupt exportable supplies. The headline is broadly supportive for food inflation concerns and could add attention back to corn, soybeans, wheat, vegetable oils, and fertilizer-linked crop economics.
Corn
B 3000 z 480/530 cs vs s 1500 z 550 c 10 to 10 ¾ db vs 445
B 5000 z 480/530 cs vs s 2500 z 550 c 9 to 9 5/8 db vs 438
B 1200 z 500 c vs s z 410 p 5/8 to 1 db
B 1600 n 410/425 cs 5 1/4
B 1000 z 530 c 6
B 1250 q 390/370 ps 2 3/4
B 2100 u 385 p 3 1/8 vs 426
S 1000 q 450 c 5 ¾ to 5 1/2
S 1600 n 430 c 1 ¾ vs 413
B 500 w1 430 p 6 1/2
B 500 u 425 straddles 36 ¾ vs 419 1/2
B 1000 n 415 c 5 1/8
B 2000 n 430 c 1 5/8
S 1000 sd q 460 c 8 1/2
B 2000n 420 c 3 1/8 to 3 3/8
S 1000 n 420 c 3 ¾
B 1000 n 405 p 2 3/8 to 2 5/8
S 1500 sd n 445 c 6 5/8 to 6 3/8
B 1500 h 530 c vs s 3000 h 630 c 2 7/8 to 3
B 400 q 430 c 12 ¼ to 12 3/8
B 200 z 450/500 cs vs s 415 p even
S 2000 u 385 p 3 1/8 vs 426
B 200 n27 480/540 cs vs s 430 p 3/8 db
B 1600 z 425/475 cs 19 1/2
S 400 n 420 c 5 7/8 vs 419
B 1000 sd q 460/480 cs 4 5/8
B 200 v 460/480 cs 5
S 150 z 410p/480c strangles 19 1/2
B 2000 z 420 p 13 ½ vs 442 1/4
B 1000 u 460/510 cs 5 1/8 vs 425
B 1000 n 420 c vs s 2000 n 425 c 2 1/8 cr vs 418 1/4
B 2000 u 490 c 3 5/8 to 4 1/8
B 500 q 440 c 9
B 500 n 400 p 1 1/2
S 1500 n 400 p 1 5/8 to 1 ½ vs 415
S 2500 n 415 p 6 ½ to 6 ¼ vs 415 3/4
S 1800 sd n 460/450 ps 7 1/2
S 500 u 460 c 7 1/2
B 250 u 350 p 5/8
B 100 v 340 p 3/8
B 1600 n 450 straddles 35 1/8 vs 416
S 1750 sd q 490 c 3 5/8
B 500 n 430 p 17 1/4
B 500 z 525 c 6 3/8
B 1600 n 455 p 39 ¼ vs 416 1/4
S 2000 z 470 p 41 1/8 vs 444 1/4
S 500 u 470 c 6 1/4
S 2000 q 425/450 cs 8 to 7 7/8
S 2400 u 430/400 ps 14
On a block
S 1000 u 455 c 8 3/8 vs 423 3/4
S 2500 n 420 c 5 7/8 vs 419
Beans
B 1500 n 1140 c 3 1/2
S 500 q 1080 p 10 3/8
S 100 h 1120 p 35 3/4
S 500 x 1070 p 18 ¼ to 18 1/8
S 1000 sd n 1160 c 4 1/8 to 3 1/8
B 1000 x 1250 c 16 to 16 1/4
B 1000 x 1240 c 17 3/8
B 500 sd u 1170/1270 cs vs s 1070 p 4 db
B 250 q 1200 c 5 3/4
B 1250 n 1130 c 7 5/8 vs 1119
B 1000 n 1110 p vs s 1000 sd n 1130 p 3/8 cr
S 500 q 1130 straddles 30 ¾ to 30 3/8
B 100 sd v 1120 c 30 1/2
B 600 x 1200 c 26
B 600 sd q 1160 c 18 1/2
B 2000 x 1250/1350 cs vs s 1050 p 2 7/8 cr vs 1135 1/2
Soymeal
S 100 u 290 p 4.10
B 250 n 310 c vs s 500 n 320 c .70 db
S 500 q 315 c 4.05
B 500 q 305 c 7.25
B 200 n 340 c .25
Bean oil
S 300 z 60 p 1.160
S 150 q 70p/75c strangles 3.130 vs 7349
S 100 z 65p/75c strangles 5.560 vs 7047
B 250 n 72 p .585
B 500 n 70 p .215 to .350
B 500 q 70 p 1.200 to 1.260
B 300 n 80 c .325
S 250 n 70 p .310
B 500 n 72 p .720 to .725
B 200 n 7750 c vs s 400 n 80 c .135 db
S 800 n 80 c .685
Wheat
B 750 n 620/660 cs 2 5/8
S 500 n 595 straddles 26 1/8
B 100 u 500 p 1 1/4
B 300 n 595 c 9
S 1000 h 1400 c 1 to 7/8
B 100 z 1100 c 1 1/8
B 300 h 1800 c 1/2
B 600 z 1600 c 1/8 to 1/4
B 400 n 600/630 cs 5 ¼ to 5 3/8
Kc wheat
S 1000 n 690 c 1 ¼ to 1 1/8
B 3000 n 650 c 6 to 7 1/4
B 200 n 640 c 12 3/4
S 100 u 690/630 ps 21 3/8
B 250 n 610 p 4 7/8 vs 630 3/4
B 1000 n 650 c 7 ¼ to 7 1/2
B 150 n 625 straddles 26 7/8
Hogs
Bought 750 Dec 76/72 put spread paid 1.95 up to 2.05
Sold 400 July 100 calls @ .8750
Bought 800 July 120 calls paid .025
Bought 200 Oct 88/102 call spread 1x2 @ 1.425 up to 1.45
Bought 1000 Oct 50 puts paid .15
Bought 150 Dec 76/62 put spread v. 84 calls paid 1.025
Bought Aug 100 calls paid 2.10 up to 2.175
Bought 100 July 94 puts paid 1.05 up to 1.10
Sold 600 July 98/104 call spread @ 1.35 down to 1.25
Live Cattle
Sold 2000 Aug 230 puts @ 1.85 down to 1.55
Sold 300 July 96 puts bought 300 Aug 90puts @ .30 down to .25
Bought 250 Aug 230/222 put spread paid 1.025 up to 1.125
Bought 1000 Aug 232/225 put spread paid 1.90
Sold 150 Dec 232/226 put spreads @ 2.275
Sold 200 Feb 260 calls @ 2.425
Bought Aug 224 puts paid 7.15 covered 241.50
Sold 350 Dec 210 puts @ 2.65 down to 2.625
Feeder Cattle
Sold 350 Aug 370/360 put spreads @ 5.725 down to 5.65
Sold 100 Oct 370 calls @ 7.55 down to 7.475
Bought 100 Nov 390 calls paid 2.80
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