President Trump said he expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit the U.S. around September 24, a date that lines up with earlier reporting that Trump invited Xi to the White House during his May visit to Beijing. Trump framed the visit as a major diplomatic event, saying Xi may come “toward the end of Sept. 24” and that a large venue would be needed because “everyone wants to see him.” For markets, this keeps U.S.-China trade diplomacy front and center into late September, with soybeans, corn, ethanol, freight, tariffs, and broader ag purchase commitments likely to remain sensitive to any confirmation or cancellation of the visit.
Democratic state attorneys general are pushing back against President Trump’s proposed forced-labor tariff plan, arguing that the administration is using forced-labor concerns as a legal pathway to bring back broad tariffs that had previously faced court challenges. The USTR proposal would apply new duties of up to 12.5% on imports from 59 countries plus the European Union, with the administration saying those trading partners have not done enough to block goods made with forced labor. The AG coalition, led by California AG Rob Bonta, says the plan is unlawful, would raise consumer costs, and is too broad to be directly tied to solving forced-labor abuses. For markets, the key takeaway is that the tariff path remains legally and politically contested, with a USTR public hearing beginning July 7 and uncertainty still hanging over import costs, supply chains, and retaliatory trade risk.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller sounded more hawkish, saying the Fed’s risk balance has “completely flipped” from last year: the labor market now looks more stable, while inflation is accelerating and becoming the bigger policy concern. That matters because Waller had previously supported rate cuts when job-market weakness was the main risk, but his latest comments suggest the Fed may need to focus more on inflation control and less on labor support. For markets, the message leans supportive of higher Treasury yields and the dollar, while adding pressure to equities and commodities if traders price in a greater chance of a Fed hike at the July 28–29 meeting or by September.
PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng reinforced that China’s monetary policy remains supportive, while also announcing a broader package to deepen Hong Kong’s role as an offshore yuan and financial-market hub. The key move is raising the Southbound Bond Connect quota to CNY 800 billion from CNY 500 billion, giving mainland investors more room to buy Hong Kong bonds and supporting cross-border capital flows. Pan also said China will encourage more quality mainland companies to list in Hong Kong, increase China’s FX reserve allocation into Hong Kong markets, and support the launch of yuan-denominated commodities futures there. For markets, the message is supportive for Hong Kong assets, offshore yuan liquidity, bond-market activity, and potentially China-linked commodity pricing, especially as Beijing continues trying to internationalize the yuan and reduce reliance on dollar-based market infrastructure.
The World Bank’s 4.4% China growth projection for 2026 reinforces the idea that China is still expanding, but at a slower and more mature pace. The key takeaway for commodity markets is that this is not a demand-collapse story, but it does point to less room for aggressive import growth unless Beijing adds more stimulus or trade policy shifts. For agriculture, slower Chinese growth can temper expectations for discretionary demand and feed expansion, but soybeans, corn, meat, energy, and freight markets will still be driven more by policy, margins, inventories, and U.S.–China trade flows than GDP alone. The World Bank’s own China outlook points to growth easing from an estimated 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 as headwinds persist.
Japan Economy Minister Kiuchi pushed back on reports that Tokyo is pressuring the Bank of Japan to lower or hold down rates, saying the government’s economic blueprint uses the same monetary-policy language as prior frameworks and does not represent a shift in policy. He also rejected the idea that Japan is loosening fiscal discipline, arguing the blueprint is instead making the government’s fiscal stance more transparent and verifiable. For markets, the comments are aimed at calming concerns over BOJ independence and Japan’s debt outlook, but the broader backdrop still matters: Tokyo wants stronger growth while the BOJ is balancing inflation pressure, yen weakness, and the risk of tightening too much too soon.
Overnight option activity
Corn
B 400 z 500 c 12 3/4
B 350 sd q 500 c 1 7/8 to 2
S 250 v 425 straddles vs b v 460 c 35 cr
B 100 u 420 p 9 1/8
S 150 u 405 p 4 5/8 to 4 3/8
S 100 u 415 p 7 1/4
B 100 u 500 c 3 1/4
B 500 u 660 c 1/4
S 100 z 440 p 16 3/8
B 400 sd q 440 p 3 3/4
B 250 u 400 p 3 3/8 to 3 5/8
B 500 u 470 c 7 ¼ to 7 1/2
B 400 q 385/370 ps 3/4
B 500 z 500/550 cs vs s u 500/550 cs 4 7/8 db
Beans
B 300 q 1140/1120 ps 2 1/2
S 200 u 1110/1070 ps 4 1/4
S 100 z 1300/1380 cs 11 5/8
Open interest changes
Corn
Aug 425/410 1x2 put spread buy and week 2 new crop 455/440 put spread buys were rolling longs. Dec 500 call buy, march 560 call buy, oct 470 call buy and oct 520 call sales were new. Sept 470 call buy, dec 550 call buy, oct 450 call sale and oct 500 call sales were closing.
Beans
Nov 1160/1200 call spread sale and nov 1180/1240 call spread sales were rolling longs. Nov 1050p/1250c strangle buy, nov 1300 call buy and nov 1050p/1300c strangle buys were closing.
Soymeal
Sept 285 put buy was closing.
Bean oil
Aug 62 put buy was closing.
Wheat
Sept 550 put buy was closing.
Live cattle
Aug 240 call buy was new. Oct 240 call buys were closing.
Cvol
Ags 22.63% up 2.42%
Corn 30.86% up 4.30%
Beans 20.87% up 4.36%
Soymeal 22.13% up 3.34%
Bean oil 25.19% up 1.52%
Wheat 31.70% up 4.28%
Feeder cattle 15.68% up .01%
Live cattle 15.36% down .28%
Lean hogs 21.45% up 1.21%
Class 3 milk 21.29% up .92%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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