Tomorrow, Wednesday, July 15, brings a busy earnings calendar led by Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Conagra Brands, J.B. Hunt, Johnson & Johnson, ASML, PNC, Progressive, Kinder Morgan and United Airlines. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock will offer a read on capital markets, investment activity and fund flows, while J.B. Hunt will be closely watched for signals on freight demand, shipping volumes and the broader industrial economy. Conagra will be especially relevant to agriculture and food markets, with attention on sales volumes, pricing, consumer demand, commodity costs, margins and management’s outlook.
Brazil approved a temporary increase in the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32% from 30%, effective for 180 days with the option for one additional 180-day extension. The higher blend is expected to replace roughly 900 million liters of gasoline imports annually, supporting domestic ethanol demand while reducing Brazil’s exposure to volatile global oil and fuel supplies. The move is supportive for Brazil’s sugarcane-based ethanol industry and could encourage mills to direct more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar, particularly if energy prices remain elevated.
Fitch Ratings said the newly confirmed El Niño raises weather and credit risks across Latin America’s transportation sector, especially along Pacific coast and Andean corridors where heavy rain and flooding could damage infrastructure, interrupt service and reduce cargo volumes. Brazil’s toll roads face the greatest demand exposure because of their reliance on agricultural traffic, with a shorter planting window and possible low river levels threatening grain movement. Ports in Peru and other coastal areas face flooding, access and maintenance risks, while the Panama Canal could again face draft restrictions if rainfall around Gatún Lake weakens. Airports may see softer agricultural airfreight, although Caribbean traffic could benefit from reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, while railroads are viewed as the least vulnerable because they retain structural demand advantages even during crop disruptions.
China’s trade surplus with the European Union reached a record $32.9 billion in June, up 27% from a year earlier, as Chinese exports remained strong despite weak domestic demand. The widening imbalance is increasing pressure on European manufacturers and raising the risk of new tariffs or other trade protections, particularly as China’s surplus with Germany more than doubled. European leaders are also focusing on currency policy, arguing that an undervalued yuan gives Chinese exporters an additional advantage. Overall, the data point to rising trade friction between China and Europe, with industrial overcapacity, low-cost imports and currency concerns likely to remain major policy issues.
President Trump said the proposed 20% charge on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz will be replaced with negotiated trade and investment agreements with Gulf nations, including commitments to invest in the United States. This is a meaningful de-escalation from the original fee proposal, which could have added roughly $17 per barrel to a fully loaded crude tanker and sharply increased global shipping, energy and inflation costs. The shift toward trade deals should be viewed as bearish for the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil and supportive for broader markets, although the impact will depend on whether shipping traffic normalizes and the U.S.–Iran military conflict cools. Fighting and disruptions around Hormuz remain active, so oil markets are unlikely to remove the entire risk premium immediately.
Lower pork costs are providing a meaningful tailwind for Hormel Foods. BNP Paribas said pork input prices have declined year over year despite Hormel previously expecting costs to remain flat, prompting the firm to raise its third- and fourth-quarter adjusted earnings estimates. The benefit is expected to be larger in the fourth quarter, with improved pork supplies and softer consumer demand—particularly weaker bacon sales and volumes—keeping raw-material costs under pressure. This is positive for Hormel’s processing margins, but it also points to a less favorable pricing environment for hog producers.
Corn
S 200 q 440 straddles 14 1/8
S 3150 u 420/300 ps 5 3/4
B 4000 u 450/540 cs 9 1/8 vs 439
S 2000 z 530 c 5 3/4
S 1500 z 430 p 10 ¼ to 10
S 1000 u 460 c 6 3/8 vs 437 1/2
S 1000 v 460 p 19 to 18 3/8
B 400 u 420 p 6 1/8
S 1000 q 410 p 3/8
S 1800 q 450 c 2 7/8
S 150 z27 440p/510c strangles 47 vs 482 1/2
S 350 z27 440 p 18 5/8 vs 482 1/2
S 200 k 490/470 pos 10 3/4
B 1000 q 444 c 4 3/4
S 2500 u 460 c 6 3/8 to 6 ¼ vs 437 1/2
Beans
S 200 q 1190 straddles 26 7/8
B 100 xx +50 cso c vs s even cso p 5 db
B 500 qx +10 cso c 2 1/2
B 1000 x 1250/1300 cs 9 1/8 vs 1192
S 1000 sd q 1192 straddles 26 3/8
B 500 x 1180 c 44 7/8 vs 1191 1/4
B 2000 sd u 1160 p vs s u 1150 p 1 ¼ to ¼ cr
B 1500 x 1480 c 2 3/4
S 500 q 1200/1240 cs 8 3/4
Soymeal
S 400 u 315 c 7.85 vs 314.9
S 1000 h 315 p 14.35 vs 317.4
S 700 z 340 c 6.75 to 6.65 vs 315.3
S 200 u 320 c 5.45 vs 313.0
B 200 u 315/325 cs 3.20
B 1000 q 320/330 cs 2.30 vs 317.8
Bean oil
B 700 h 68/74 cs 2.435 vs 6998
B 1000 v 72/78 cs 1.760 vs 7162
B 1000 u 70 p 1.310 vs 7235
S 250 u 71/74 cs 1.200
S 1000 u 73/76 cs .865 vs 7195
B 500 z 65 p 1.600
Wheat
B 250 u 610p/690c strangles 26 1/4
B 1000 u 660 c 21 5/8 to 22 3/4
B 1000 u 670 c 19 7/8 to 20 3/4
B 750 z 750/800 cs 7 ½
B 500 u 700 c 13 vs 647
B 2000 u 600 p 7 ½ to 8 3/4
B 300 z 740/800/850 call trees paying 3
S 1000 u 700 c 9 ½ vs 638
S 1000 z 640 p 37 vs 650 1/2
S 400 h 730 c 30 1/8 vs 658 1/2
B 500 q 630/615 ps 5 to 5 1/8
B 500 u 700 c 11 ½ to 11 5/8
B 400 u 640/600 ps vs s 700 c 9 db
B 100 q 640 c vs s 200 q 665 c 1 ¼ db
Kc wheat
S 1000 u 700 c 9 ½ vs 638
S 2000 z 700/750 cs 9 vs 683
S 250 q 700 c 5 1/4
S 4000 u 700/750 cs 9 vs 664 1/2
S 200 u 660 p 20 ¾ vs 674 1/2
S 1000 z 800 c 16 1/8
Hogs
Sold 250 Feb 78/79 call spreads @ .475
Sold 150 Aug 98 calls @ 2.2250 down to 1.925
Sold 1200 oct 90 calls 1.475 to 1.450
Sold 200 July 94 calls @ 1.00
Sold 250 Dec 84/76/69 skinny put fly @ 7.575
Sold 200 Aug 101 calls @ .725 down to 7.00
Live Cattle
Bought 150 feb 226/202 put spread vs selling the 236 calls collecting .700 vs 229.225
Bought Aug 250/240 put spread paid 8.75 up to 9.10
Sold 400 Aug 241/239 put spread @ 1.55
Sold 300 Aug 250 calls @ .25
Bought 150 Aug/Oct 232/228 put spread paid 3.225 up to 3.25
Sold 100 Oct 250 calls @ .85
Sold 350 Aug 238/240 call spreads @ .475
Bought 100 Aug/Oct 236/230 call spread Diag. Paid 3.925 up to 4.00
Sold 250 Oct 244 calls @ 1.625 down to 1.60
Bought 500 Oct 240/255 call spreads paid 1.925 covered 228.65 On a Block
Bought 150 Aug 264 calls @ .05
Sold 500 Feb 230/200 puts spread @ 8.325 down to 8.275 covered 229.025
Bought 450 Oct 246 calls paid 1.075 up to 1.15
Bought 200 Oct 240/226 put spread paid 8.20
Bought 500 Dec 238/226 put spread paid 6.40 up to 6.50
Sold 200 Feb 220/190 put spreads @ 5.50 down to 5.45 covered 228.45
Bought 250 Oct 248 calls paid .925 up to .95
Feeder cattle
Sold 300 aug 366/358 put spreads 6.000 to 5.775
Bought 400 Sept 370 calls paid 2.45 up to 2.475
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