The Trump administration moved to rebuild its tariff framework ahead of the July 24 expiration of the temporary 10% baseline levy, announcing new tariffs of roughly 10% to 12.5% on about 60 countries, with higher rates for selected trading partners. The administration is presenting the measures as part of a forced-labor enforcement effort and using a different legal pathway after the Supreme Court rejected its earlier emergency-power approach. Additional sector actions include a reported 50% tariff on certain Canadian alcoholic beverages and a proposed 100% levy on generic medicines, which has pressured Indian drugmakers and raised concerns about higher U.S. healthcare costs and potential shortages. Meanwhile, Washington and Beijing remain in talks over tariff reductions, while China is expanding duty-free access for dozens of countries. Corporate results are already reflecting the uneven impact: Daimler Truck benefited from U.S.-content relief, while Harley-Davidson, Sartorius and Volkswagen continue to face tariff-related cost and demand pressures.
U.S. weekly export sales were supportive for corn and especially soybean meal, but weak for old-crop soybeans. Corn sales totaled 1.034 million metric tons, including 332,700 tons of old crop and 701,500 tons of new crop. Soybean sales reached roughly 1.60 million tons, but only 56,400 tons were old crop, with nearly all the demand—about 1.54 million tons—booked for 2026/27. Soybean meal was the standout at roughly 591,000 tons, split between 185,000 tons old crop and about 406,000 tons new crop. Soybean oil sales were limited to roughly 600 tons, while wheat sales were modest at 290,000 tons. Beef sales improved to 9,378 tons, and pork sales rose to 28,771 tons.
Albertsons cut its profit and same-store sales outlook as cautious consumers pull back and grocery competition intensifies, sending the shares sharply lower. Beyond inflation and price pressure, rising GLP-1 use may become another structural headwind because users often eat smaller portions and buy fewer snacks, sweets, sugary drinks and processed foods, while shifting spending toward protein, produce and smaller packages. The impact is still secondary today, but over time it could reduce grocery unit volumes and demand for ingredients such as sugar, corn sweeteners and vegetable oils.
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels of 2026 as rising oil prices and renewed escalation risk in the Iran conflict increased inflation concerns and pushed traders to consider the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The two-year yield rose as high as 4.37%, the 10-year approached 4.70%, and the 30-year touched 5.19%, near its highest level since 2007. Interest-rate markets now assign roughly a 35% chance of a Fed hike at the July 28–29 meeting, up sharply from about 10% a week earlier, showing how quickly higher energy costs are changing the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
Corn is gaining strength from its own fundamentals as U.S. weather concerns, geopolitical risk, a supportive June 30 USDA report and a rapidly deteriorating French crop push prices to new highs for the move. MATIF corn has reached contract highs near €260 per metric ton, or about $7.10 per bushel, creating a roughly $2.70 premium over CBOT and signaling that shrinking European production could increase import demand and provide further support to global corn prices.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada and the U.S. remain in active negotiations ahead of the Aug. 19 tariff deadline, while warning that “everything is on the table” if the U.S. proceeds with 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods. Carney emphasized that Canada will defend its businesses, workers and families, but he did not announce any immediate retaliatory action and said there is no need to respond before the deadline. For markets, the comments appear to be more about maintaining negotiating leverage and projecting strength domestically than signaling a near-term policy change, with the key issue still whether the two sides can reach a broader agreement before the tariffs take effect.
Corn
B 2200 z 450/525 cs 33 5/8 vs 489 3/4
S 500 w2 465 straddles 19 3/8
S 1200 h 480 p 20 1/8 vs 503 1/2
B 500 u 460 p 12 1/4
B 200 nu +10/+30 cso cs 8
B 1500 w1 new crop 470 p 3 3/8
S 1000 z 380 p 1 vs 487 1/4
S 2700 z 560 c 8 3/4
B 300 h 500 p 30 7/8 vs 502
S 1000 sd u 485 p 14 ¼ to 13 3/4
S 1000 z 530 c 14 1/8 to 13 ¾ vs 486 3/4
S 1500 w1 new crop 480 straddles 21 to 20 3/4
B 1000 v 485/445 ps vs z 530 c 3 ½ db
B 1500 z 570 c 7 ½ vs 485 1/2
B 1000 x 510 c vs s u 470 c 4 7/8 to 5 db
B 1650 u 430 p 3 1/8 vs 463 3/4
B 500 v 515 c 12 1/4
S 2300 z 480 p vs b u 460 p 10 ¾ to 10 ½ cr
B 1500 k 500/550 cs 18 to 18 1/4
B 1500 h 500/550 cs 16 ¼ to 16 3/8
B 400 z 500/550 cs vs s 440 p 4 ¾ db
S 200 u 470 straddles 32 1/8 to 31 ¾
S 3000 u 460 p 13
S 5000 u 500 c 5 ¼ to 5
S 500 w1 455 c 15 1/8 to 14 3/4
On a block
B 2000 z 550 c 10 ¼ vs 486 1/4
Beans
B 1000 w5 1260/1280 cs 2 1/2
S 500 x 1360 c 17 ½ to 17 3/8
S 400 x27 1300 c 39 vs 1192
B 500 sd v 1240/1300 cs 9 1/4
B 1200 x 1350/1500 cs 14 3/8
B 250 u 1240 c 26
S 1000 w5 1260/1280 cs 3 ¼ to 2 5/8
B 1300 xn -30 cso p 5 to 5 7/8
B 500 u 1120 p 1 1/2
S 1000 x 1360 c 18 3/8 vs 1246 1/4
B 500 x 1460/1700 cs vs s 1080 p 3 ¼ db
B 1000 x 1400/1500 cs 7
Soymeal
B 100 z 335 c 17.35 vs 332.4
S 125 w2 330/335 cs 1.80
S 600 u 320 straddles 18.90
On a block
S 1500 h 350 c 14.35 vs 336.8
S 500 n 350 c 16.90 vs 337.6
Bean oil
S 500 z 73 straddles 7.410 vs 7312
B 250 z 6750 p 1.400
S 300 v 78 c 1.355
B 200 z 76 c 2.670 vs 7320
B 500 z 76 c 2.700
B 300 z 80 c 1.740 vs 7352
B 250 z 7550 c 2.970
S 200 k 6950 p 4.080 vs 7170
B 500 u 80/90 cs .520 vs 7500
Wheat
B 500 z 1000 c 9 3/8 to 10
B 200 w1 800c 4 1/2
S 2000 u 800 c 9 ¾ vs 699 1/2
B 1300 u 830/850 cs 1 7/8
S 700 w5 730/800 cs 9 ½ to 7 3/4
S 200 z 720 straddles 117 1/2
S 200 u 610/640 cs 25
B 800 u 700/640 ps 26 1/2
Kc wheat
B 1000 z 800/850/900 call flies 5 1/4
S 200 z 725 c vs b 400 z 900 c 27 cr
B 450 z 800/900 cs 26 1/4
B 200 z 800 c 57 3/4
S 500 h 780 c vs b h 680 p 42 ½ cr vs 773 1/2
S 100 v 800 and z 800c 91 ½ cr vs 771
Hogs
Sold 400 Aug 96 puts @ .05
Bought 300 April 86/91 strangle paid 8.05 up to 8.30
Sold 400 Oct 92 calls @ 1.925
Bought 100 April 86/76 put spread v. 98 calls paid 1.55
Sold 800 Oct 94 calls @ 1.20 down to 1.175 covered 88.425
Bought 100 Aug 101 calls paid 1.30
Bought 150 Dec 76/72 put spread paid 1.225
Bought 300 Aug 103 calls paid .50 up to .55
Sold 600 Aug 101/98 put spread @ .75 down to .65
Live Cattle
Bought 400 Oct 240 calls paid 1.10 up to 1.15
Sold 1000 Aug 227/222 put spread @ 2.725 down to 2.575
Sold 200 Aug 238/224 put spread @ 11.525 down to 11.50
Sold 500 Aug 230 puts @ 6.00 down to 5.70
Sold 150 Aug 232/229 put spread @ 2.525
Bought 150 Dec 230/222 put spread paid 4.750
Bought 150 Aug 223 calls paid 3.075 up to 3.10
Bought 300 Oct/Dec 210/216 put spread paid 4.70 up to 5.025
Feeder Cattle
Bought 250 Sept 335 puts paid 7.50
Bought 100 Aug 320/310 put spread paid .55
Bought 300 Nov 350/300 put spread paid 23.00 up to 23.10 covered 327.825
Sold 100 Aug/Sep 346 put spread Cal. @ 5.50
Sold 100 Aug 350 calls @ 3.00
|
Corn
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
C Q6
|
464.00
|
2.00
|
465
|
24.9
|
-2.80
|
6.75
|
7.28
|
7.31
|
25.00
|
1
|
|
C U6
|
464.00
|
2.00
|
465
|
28.3
|
-1.20
|
6.75
|
8.27
|
7.31
|
25.00
|
29
|
|
C V6
|
487.50
|
2.75
|
490
|
26.3
|
-0.70
|
7.25
|
8.08
|
7.49
|
24.39
|
64
|
|
C X6
|
487.50
|
2.75
|
490
|
25.9
|
-0.40
|
7.25
|
7.95
|
7.49
|
24.39
|
92
|
|
C Z6
|
487.50
|
2.75
|
490
|
24.9
|
-0.50
|
7.25
|
7.65
|
7.49
|
24.39
|
120
|
|
C H7
|
503.00
|
2.75
|
505
|
21.5
|
-0.20
|
7.50
|
6.81
|
7.31
|
23.06
|
211
|
|
Beans
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
S Q6
|
1237.50
|
4.50
|
1240
|
18.5
|
0.80
|
11.50
|
14.42
|
15.38
|
19.72
|
1
|
|
S U6
|
1231.00
|
5.00
|
1230
|
21.9
|
0.80
|
12.25
|
16.98
|
14.69
|
18.94
|
29
|
|
S V6
|
1243.75
|
4.75
|
1240
|
20.6
|
0.60
|
14.00
|
16.14
|
14.50
|
18.51
|
64
|
|
S X6
|
1243.75
|
4.75
|
1240
|
20.0
|
0.60
|
14.00
|
15.67
|
14.50
|
18.51
|
92
|
|
S F7
|
1257.00
|
4.25
|
1260
|
18.3
|
0.40
|
13.25
|
14.49
|
14.11
|
17.82
|
154
|
|
SRW Wheat
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
W Q6
|
696.25
|
-9.50
|
695
|
47.3
|
-3.80
|
17.25
|
20.74
|
14.41
|
32.85
|
1
|
|
W U6
|
696.25
|
-9.50
|
695
|
43.2
|
-1.20
|
17.25
|
18.95
|
14.41
|
32.85
|
29
|
|
W V6
|
713.75
|
-9.00
|
715
|
38.5
|
-0.40
|
16.50
|
17.31
|
13.99
|
31.13
|
64
|
|
W X6
|
713.75
|
-9.00
|
715
|
37.6
|
-0.40
|
16.50
|
16.91
|
13.99
|
31.13
|
92
|
|
W Z6
|
713.75
|
-9.00
|
715
|
36.7
|
-0.20
|
16.50
|
16.50
|
13.99
|
31.13
|
120
|
|
HRW Wheat
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
KWQ6
|
759.75
|
-3.75
|
760
|
47.7
|
-8.10
|
15.00
|
22.83
|
15.84
|
33.09
|
1
|
|
KWU6
|
759.75
|
-3.75
|
760
|
44.7
|
-0.30
|
15.00
|
21.39
|
15.84
|
33.09
|
29
|
|
KWV6
|
775.75
|
-3.25
|
780
|
39.9
|
0.20
|
15.00
|
19.50
|
15.41
|
31.53
|
64
|
|
KWZ6
|
775.75
|
-3.25
|
775
|
37.5
|
0.50
|
15.00
|
18.32
|
15.41
|
31.53
|
120
|
|
KWH7
|
787.50
|
-3.50
|
790
|
32.4
|
0.40
|
14.00
|
16.07
|
14.95
|
30.14
|
211
|
|
Bean Oil
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
BOQ6
|
75.59
|
0.11
|
75.5
|
22.9
|
-1.30
|
1.05
|
1.09
|
1.26
|
26.52
|
1
|
|
BOU6
|
74.69
|
0.16
|
74.5
|
22.5
|
-1.60
|
1.10
|
1.06
|
1.16
|
24.75
|
29
|
|
BOV6
|
73.75
|
0.18
|
74
|
22.2
|
-1.00
|
1.07
|
1.03
|
1.11
|
23.89
|
64
|
|
BOZ6
|
72.98
|
0.16
|
73
|
22.5
|
-0.50
|
1.13
|
1.03
|
1.09
|
23.61
|
120
|
|
Meal
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
SMQ6
|
329.90
|
-1.70
|
330
|
30.4
|
0.30
|
5.30
|
6.32
|
3.30
|
15.89
|
1
|
|
SMU6
|
328.80
|
-0.80
|
330
|
24.0
|
0.00
|
5.90
|
4.97
|
3.52
|
16.99
|
29
|
|
SMV6
|
327.60
|
-0.80
|
330
|
22.7
|
0.00
|
5.90
|
4.68
|
3.77
|
18.28
|
64
|
|
SMZ6
|
331.90
|
-1.00
|
330
|
21.8
|
-0.20
|
5.90
|
4.56
|
3.90
|
18.66
|
120
|
|
Lean Hogs
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Last Trade
|
|
LHQ6
|
102.150
|
0.700
|
102
|
10.7
|
0.20
|
1.48
|
0.69
|
1.22
|
18.90
|
22
|
|
LHU6
|
88.900
|
0.550
|
88
|
20.4
|
-0.10
|
1.40
|
1.14
|
1.21
|
21.69
|
54
|
|
LHV6
|
88.900
|
0.550
|
88
|
19.0
|
0.00
|
1.40
|
1.06
|
1.21
|
21.69
|
83
|
|
LHX6
|
80.125
|
0.300
|
80
|
22.2
|
0.10
|
1.13
|
1.12
|
1.18
|
23.39
|
113
|
|
LHZ6
|
80.125
|
0.300
|
80
|
20.7
|
0.10
|
1.13
|
1.04
|
1.18
|
23.39
|
144
|
|
Live Cattle
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Exp
|
|
LCQ6
|
225.400
|
2.200
|
226
|
15.7
|
-1.00
|
4.00
|
2.23
|
1.63
|
11.47
|
15
|
|
LCU6
|
221.375
|
2.175
|
222
|
17.1
|
-0.30
|
4.53
|
2.38
|
1.70
|
12.20
|
43
|
|
LCV6
|
221.375
|
2.175
|
222
|
17.3
|
-0.40
|
4.53
|
2.41
|
1.70
|
12.20
|
71
|
|
LCX6
|
220.675
|
1.875
|
220
|
17.5
|
-0.30
|
4.18
|
2.43
|
1.65
|
11.88
|
106
|
|
LCZ6
|
220.675
|
1.875
|
220
|
17.5
|
-0.20
|
4.18
|
2.43
|
1.65
|
11.88
|
134
|
|
Feeder Cattle
| | | | | | | | | | |
|
Month
|
Futures
|
Change
|
Strike
|
Implied Vol
|
Change in IV
|
Futures Range
|
Implied BE
|
Realized BE
|
20D Historic Vol
|
Days to Last Trade
|
|
FCQ6
|
343.775
|
2.600
|
344
|
14.5
|
-0.50
|
6.48
|
3.14
|
3.30
|
15.23
|
35
|
|
FCU6
|
339.850
|
3.650
|
340
|
17.3
|
-0.50
|
7.50
|
3.70
|
3.52
|
16.43
|
63
|
|
FCV6
|
333.450
|
3.600
|
334
|
19.2
|
-0.40
|
8.13
|
4.03
|
3.61
|
17.17
|
98
|
|
FCX6
|
328.800
|
3.200
|
328
|
19.4
|
-0.50
|
8.20
|
4.02
|
3.52
|
16.99
|
119
|
|
FCF7
|
322.625
|
2.925
|
322
|
19.2
|
-0.20
|
8.05
|
3.90
|
3.37
|
16.58
|
189
|
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StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
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