Today is LTD for aug grain options.
The U.S.-Iran conflict intensified as President Trump said damages to ships and cargo would be paid from Iranian funds under U.S. control, while signaling that Iran wants a deal but is not ready. U.S. forces carried out a 13th straight night of strikes on Iranian military targets, and CENTCOM said the Strait of Hormuz remains open under U.S. protection despite continued attacks. Explosions and air-defense activity were reported across Iran, with additional reports of Iranian drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Jordan. Iran rejected a U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire proposal delivered through Iraq and again warned it could close Hormuz, while U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that Iran may be receiving help from Russia or China. Overall, the conflict remains highly volatile, with diplomacy stalled and risks to shipping, energy markets, and regional security still rising.
U.S.-China engagement appears to be broadening ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s September 24 visit to the United States. President Trump said artificial intelligence will be discussed during the meeting and maintained that the U.S. currently leads China and other countries in the sector. Separately, China’s Ministry of Commerce said both sides are working to implement the previously agreed tariff-reduction plan and will remain in close communication, signaling continued efforts to stabilize the trade relationship.
The U.S. imposed new Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from roughly 60 countries over forced-labor concerns as the previous 10% global tariff expired. Countries that have implemented forced-labor import prohibitions face the 10% rate, while those without such measures face 12.5%. Oil, natural gas, fertilizer and food products are exempt. The tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24, with goods already in transit receiving a short grace period until July 28.
OPEC+ is reportedly likely to approve another 188,000-barrel-per-day increase in production quotas for September when the group meets on August 2, continuing the gradual unwinding of its earlier supply cuts. The announcement is modestly bearish for crude oil on paper, but its actual impact may be limited because several producers remain below quota and Middle East conflict continues to disrupt production and shipping.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas criticized the new U.S. tariffs on EU goods as unjustified and questioned the forced-labor rationale, calling the move a negative surprise after Europe upheld its side of the trade agreement. She said the EU did not expect to be included in the new tariff measures and will seek clarification from Washington before determining its response.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said this week’s talks with the U.S. reflect the seriousness and broad scope of the bilateral trade relationship, but warned that every response option remains available if the two countries cannot resolve the latest U.S. tariff threats. He clarified that Canada has not agreed to a partial USMCA deal, with negotiations still centered on critical sectors and some outstanding issues potentially continuing through the end of 2026.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico and the U.S. are making progress in the USMCA review, while Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the latest U.S. tariff announcement does not appear to change the effective tariff rate currently paid by Mexican goods. The comments suggest negotiations are advancing and that Mexico expects its existing trade treatment, including USMCA preferences, to remain largely intact for now.
Brazil rejected the new 12.5% U.S. forced-labor tariff on Brazilian goods as arbitrary and unjustified, and said it will begin procedures under its reciprocity law while also challenging the measure through the WTO dispute-settlement process. The response raises the risk of Brazilian retaliatory measures and a prolonged trade dispute with Washington.
Japan’s trade minister Ryosei Akazawa called the latest U.S. tariff action regrettable but said Washington confirmed that Japan’s treatment will remain capped by the 2025 bilateral tariff agreement. This suggests Japan should avoid any additional tariff burden beyond the terms already negotiated, limiting the immediate impact on Japanese exports.
The U.S. Treasury said no major trading partner manipulated its currency in 2025 to gain an unfair trade advantage, reducing the risk of immediate currency-related sanctions or tariffs. However, 10 major partners remain on the enhanced monitoring list, meaning the U.S. will continue closely reviewing their exchange-rate policies, trade balances and foreign-exchange intervention.
China’s Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu visited the United States on July 22–23 for talks with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, where the two sides discussed the broader U.S.-China strategic relationship. The meeting signals that high-level diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing remains active despite ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, helping keep communication channels open on key bilateral issues.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the U.S. Treasury’s foreign-exchange report recognized the U.S.-Japan position that excessive currency volatility is undesirable. She declined to discuss specific exchange-rate levels but emphasized that officials remain in continuous communication and that Japan is prepared to respond appropriately—and take decisive action if necessary—against disorderly currency moves, reinforcing the possibility of intervention if yen volatility intensifies.
Japan’s June inflation data matched expectations at the headline and core levels, with headline CPI rising to 1.7% from 1.5% and core inflation increasing to 1.6% from 1.4%. However, inflation excluding both food and energy slowed to 1.7%, below the 2.0% forecast and down from 1.8%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain relatively subdued. The report is mildly supportive of eventual Bank of Japan tightening, but the weaker underlying measure gives policymakers room to remain cautious.
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 100 x 550 c 8 ¾
B 100 z 520 c 16 7/8
S 100 z 550 c 10 3/8
S 100 z 465/435 ps 9
B 500 z 460/410 ps 6
S 100 z 490 p 26 7/8
B 1400 sd u 470/460 ps 2 1/2
Soymeal
B 1000 z 295/290 ps .60
B 150 z 310/320 cs 6.50
B 300 z 300 p 3.00
Wheat
S 200 z 940 c 14
Open interest changes
corn
Dec 450/525 cs buy was rolling a short. March 480 put sale, w1 new crop 470 put buy, dec 560 call sale, w1 new crop 480 straddle sale, dec 480 put buy, sept 460 put sale, may 500/550 call spread buy, march 500/550 call spread buy and dec 550 call buys were new. Dec 570 call buy, sept 500 call sales were closing.
Beans
Nov july -30 cso put buy, nov 1360 call buy and nov 1350/1500 call spread buys were new.
Soymeal
March 350 call sale was new
Wheat
Sept 800 call sales were new
Kc wheat
Dec 800/850/900 call fly buy was new
Cvol
Ags 25.12% down .53%
Corn 30.40% down 1.35%
Beans 22.90% up .66%
Soymeal 25.77% down .67%
Bean oil 24.45% down 1.53%
Wheat 47.01% down 2.46%
Feeder cattle 18.07% down .52%
Live cattle 18.23% down .33%
Lean hogs 21.33% unchanged
Class 3 milk 22.10% down .24%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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