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CME Livestock Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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Diplomatic momentum around Iran appears to be improving, with President Trump saying the U.S. is holding constructive talks and that there is a good chance of reaching an agreement, although Tehran disputes that direct negotiations are underway and says communication is occurring through mediators. The administration is increasingly emphasizing sanctions and economic pressure rather than additional bombing, while Oman is working with Iran and regional governments on reopening safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz—a step that could pave the way for broader nuclear and peace negotiations. A separate report citing unnamed Pakistani intelligence officials claims Trump may still be considering a limited ground operation along Iran’s coast, but that scenario has not been confirmed by U.S. officials and should be treated cautiously. Overall, the diplomatic tone is more encouraging and could reduce some immediate crude-oil risk premium, but the lack of a formal ceasefire or shipping agreement means the threat of renewed military escalation remains significant.

 

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration does not expect the new Section 301 tariffs to create a significant additional economic shock because the 10%–12.5% rates are broadly comparable to duties businesses were already facing. Greer also said negotiations with Mexico remain focused on achieving more balanced trade, suggesting the administration will continue using tariff pressure as leverage while pursuing broader changes to the North American trading relationship.

 

U.S. customs officials have reportedly conducted spot inspections at China-linked factories in Vietnam, reviewing raw-material sourcing, production processes and how much value is added locally before goods are exported to the United States. The investigation appears aimed at determining whether Chinese products are being rerouted through Vietnam to avoid U.S. tariffs, raising concerns that Washington could impose broader or higher duties on Vietnamese imports. However, the report found no significant evidence of widespread illegal transshipment, and neither Reuters nor U.S. Customs and Border Protection independently confirmed the inspections. The development still increases uncertainty for Vietnamese manufacturers and companies that shifted supply chains out of China to reduce tariff exposure.

 

President Trump said recent inflation data showed costs falling rapidly and argued that prices should decline further once the war ends. He again called for lower interest rates, expressing confidence that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh would make the appropriate decision while acknowledging that policy is determined by the broader Fed board. The comments reinforce expectations that the administration will continue pressuring the Fed to ease monetary policy as inflation moderates.

 

President Trump praised Venezuela’s recent cooperation and emphasized what he described as America’s overwhelming energy advantage over China. His comments suggest the administration views access to abundant U.S. and Venezuelan oil resources as an important economic and geopolitical strength, particularly as global energy security remains uncertain.

 

German officials are reportedly mapping China’s economic and supply-chain vulnerabilities to identify potential pressure points the European Union could use if escalating trade tensions develop into a broader trade war. The preparations signal a tougher stance from Berlin as concerns grow over Chinese industrial overcapacity, Europe’s widening trade deficit and Beijing’s ability to restrict critical materials or retaliate against European companies. Germany still favors negotiation, but the effort suggests it wants the EU to enter any confrontation with credible countermeasures rather than remaining dependent on Chinese supply chains.

 

image-20260728045103-1

 

 

Overnight options activity

Corn

B 2000 u 470/490 cs 3 ½ to 3 3/4

B 500 zn -25/-10 cs vs s -35 p 1 db

B 1000 z 520 c 10 1/8 to 10 1/4

B 500 z 515 c 12 3/8 

S 500 z 455 p 13 ¾ to 13 5/8 

B 1000 v 515 c 8 ½ to 8 3/4

 

Beans

S 200 x 1250 c 30 ¼ to 30 

S 500 v 1220 p 42

S 500 x 1260 c 26 ½ to 26 3/8 

 

Bean oil

B 100 u 75 c .505

 

Wheat 

S 250 u 630 c and u 650/740 cs 54 ½ cr

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Sept 550 call sale, nov 515 call sale and oct 515 call buys were new. Dec 400 put buys were closing.

 

Beans

Nov 1200 put sale, nov 1220 put sale and nov 1280/1380 call spread sales were closing.  March 1500/1600 cs buy, jan 1400/1500 cs buy and nov 1360/1460 cs buys were new. 

 

Soymeal

Dec 300 put buy vs sale of dec 280p/360c strangles was new.

 

Kc wheat

Dec 850/900 call spread buy was rolling a long. 

 

Live cattle

Dec 200 put buy was closing.  April 200/180 put spread buy was new.

 

Cvol

Ags 23.90% down 1.20%

Corn 27.92% down 2.44%

Beans 21.08% down 2.36%

Soymeal 23.89% down 1.82%

Bean oil 25.55% up .79%

Wheat 39.83% down 4.03%

Feeder cattle 18.94% up .71% (1 month high)

Live cattle 19.03% up .94% (3 month high)

Class 3 milk 22.10% down .28%

 

Corn

image-20260728045103-2

Beans

image-20260728045103-3

Soymeal

image-20260728045103-4

Bean oil

image-20260728045103-5

Wheat

image-20260728045103-6

Kc wheat

image-20260728045103-7

Miax wheat

image-20260728045103-8

Oats

image-20260728045103-9

Rough rice

image-20260728045103-10

Cotton

image-20260728045103-11

Canola

image-20260728045103-12

Feeder cattle

image-20260728045103-13

Live cattle

image-20260728045103-14

Lean hogs

image-20260728045103-15

 

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