Coffee, Cocoa Regions at Center of Colombia’s Security Debate After presidential primaries
Coffee Network (Bogotá) – Colombian senator Paloma Valencia, who has pledged to retake areas controlled by illegal armed groups and strengthen security in rural regions, won a landslide victory in Sunday’s primaries, emerging as one of the three leading contenders in Colombia’s presidential race.
Valencia, part of the right-wing bloc backed by former president Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Center party, secured more than 3.2 million votes. She competed in the right-wing coalition known as the “Great Consultation for Colombia,” the largest and most competitive political bloc in the primaries, which obtained more than 6 million votes and brought together nine candidates ranging from former cabinet ministers to senators and media figures.
Other prominent candidates in the bloc included former defense minister Juan Carlos Pinzón and former finance and energy minister Mauricio Cárdenas.
Three political coalitions — right, left and center — held primaries on 8 March, the same day Colombians voted in congressional elections.
Colombia will hold presidential elections on 31 May, with three main candidates emerging in the race: left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, and now Valencia.
Cepeda has been leading polls ahead of the first round and is widely seen as representing continuity with the administration of incumbent president Gustavo Petro, although some analysts consider him more ideologically radical. He is closely followed by de la Espriella, while Valencia’s strong primary victory could reshape the dynamics of the race.
Political analyst Sergio Guzmán, director of political risk consultancy Colombia Risk Analysis, said Valencia’s performance could challenge de la Espriella’s lead.
“Her strong performance is an important milestone that could upend Abelardo de la Espriella’s candidacy,” Guzmán said.
Valencia will now need to broaden her support base. One possible strategy would be to attract voters from the political center, potentially by seeking support from Juan Daniel Oviedo, who finished second in the Great Consultation for Colombia primary with more than 1.5 million votes, Guzmán noted.
Valencia has pledged to strengthen security policies and deploy stronger military action against illegal armed groups, which have expanded their influence in several rural regions during Petro’s presidency.
Political analyst Thierry Ways said Valencia could attract greater support among centrist voters who are not aligned with de la Espriella. He added that the possibility of a woman becoming president of Colombia could further strengthen her candidacy.
Extortion in Coffee-Production areas
An investigative report published by Universidad Politécnico Grancolombiano, conducted across more than 1,000 municipalities, revealed how legal agriculture, historical vulnerability, and the reconfiguration of criminal groups have contributed to the expansion of extortion in Colombia.
Among the factors identified, the report noted that the country depends on more than 550,000 coffee-growing families distributed across roughly 600 municipalities.
Coffee farming, a key economic pillar for thousands of rural households, has been identified as a strategic target for armed groups and criminal networks, which see the steady flow of cash and the low level of banking access in rural areas as an opportunity to impose illegal payments. This practice affects producers, cooperatives, and transporters involved in the coffee supply chain.
The study shows that extortion has not followed a uniform trend. Between 2014 and 2016 there was a slight decline, but starting in 2017 the crime rose significantly. This shift coincides with the demobilization of the Farc guerrilla group and the subsequent reconfiguration of the country’s criminal landscape.
One of the key findings of the analysis is the reduction in the gap between coffee-growing and non-coffee-growing municipalities. In 2015, municipalities with coffee production recorded extortion rates 52% higher than those without coffee activity. By 2023, that difference had fallen to 9%. This suggests that extortion has become nearly evenly distributed across the country, affecting both traditional coffee regions and urban areas or municipalities without an agricultural vocation.
The research highlights that the risk of extortion increases when a municipality combines coffee production with a history of armed conflict, particularly in territories included in the Development Programs with a Territorial Focus (PDET). In these areas, the average rises by 3.4 additional cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The combination of economic activity and a legacy of violence facilitates the presence of criminal groups that impose illegal payments and control local economies.
At the same time, the presence of coca crops worsens the situation. These areas record extortion rates 3.5 points higher than municipalities without illicit crops. The analysis points to the coexistence of legal and illegal economies, where criminal networks consolidate control through logistical infrastructure and surveillance mechanisms that enable the expansion of the crime.
At the departmental level, extortion reached particularly high levels in Chocó, Guaviare, Meta, Cauca, and Arauca in 2022. These territories share dynamics of persistent conflict and weak state presence, allowing extortion to continue and intensify even during periods when other crimes decline.
The study’s geospatial analysis identified critical areas where coffee production overlaps with high extortion rates, particularly in Antioquia, Cauca, Huila, Nariño, and parts of Tolima. In these municipalities, coffee production coexists with strong criminal pressure, directly affecting farming families and the agricultural value chain.
In contrast, the traditional Coffee Axis (Eje Cafetero) — composed of Caldas, Quindío, and Risaralda — maintains extortion rates between eight and ten cases per 100,000 inhabitants, levels considered relatively low in the national context.
Congressional elections
Colombia also held congressional elections on 8 March, with early results suggesting a fragmented legislature in which no single party secured an absolute majority.
More than 3,000 candidates competed for 102 Senate seats and 182 seats in the House of Representatives.
President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact (Pacto Histórico) coalition and the opposition Democratic Center (Centro Democrático) — founded by former president Uribe — delivered the strongest results.
The Historic Pact secured 22.8% of Senate votes, while the Democratic Center obtained 15.6%. The Liberal Party, Green Alliance, and the Conservative Party followed with 11.7%, 9.8%, and 9.6%, respectively.
Results in the House of Representatives were even more fragmented.
By Diana Delgado
Source: Registraduria general de la nación, analyst, Politecnico University
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