Coffee Crop Survey in Brazil 2025/26
Update of the 2025/26 Coffee Crop Estimate
Brazil has been facing adverse weather conditions since 2020, being affected by phenomena such as La Niña, El Niño, frosts, heatwaves, and water deficits. In 2024, up until the end of July, there was a sense of optimism regarding the production potential of the 2025/26 crop, as no significant climatic adversities had been recorded in the producing regions up to that point.
However, the scenario changed drastically starting in August. Early in the month, a light frost was recorded. Shortly afterward, the coffee-producing regions faced a sequence of heatwaves and a period of severe drought. The month of September was particularly critical for arabica coffee. The dry weather and high temperatures caused vegetative damage, as well as flower and fruit abortion. However, the impact was not uniform across coffee species. Climatic conditions did not negatively affect flowering in Espírito Santo and Bahia. Moreover, the widespread use of irrigation systems contributed to the proper development of the fruits.
In November 2024, StoneX released the first estimate for the 2025/26 coffee crop, projecting total production at 65.6 million bags—a 0.4% decline compared to the previous crop. Arabica production was estimated at 40 million bags (-10.5%), while robusta was forecast at 25.6 million bags (+20.9%). In 2025, the StoneX team returned to the field for a new round of surveys, aiming to update the estimates. Due to climatic challenges and aiming to enhance data accuracy, the StoneX team decided to invest more time in collecting additional information. In addition to field visits, a detailed analysis of weather conditions was also conducted.
Coffee-Producing Regions in Brazil
Source: StoneX.
Accumulated Rainfall and Average Temperature
Source: NOAA. Design: StoneX.
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
The NDVI, which measures vegetation reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands, is an indicator of plant health status, as stress affects both the performance of the photosynthetic process and chlorophyll reflectance. NDVI values range from -1 to 1. Values close to -1 to 0.1 indicate the presence of water bodies or surfaces without vegetation; values between 0.2 and 0.5 represent stressed vegetation, ranging from degraded to weakened; and values above 0.5 indicate healthy vegetation. Values close to 1 suggest high density and vigor.
The dry winter of 2024 was one of the most intense and unprecedented ever experienced in Brazil, and the rainy season was significantly delayed in the Central-West and Southeast regions, where it normally begins in late September. Irregular rainfall in coffee-producing areas only began in late October, with more significant volumes recorded in November. By the time the rains returned, coffee fields were already showing severe signs of stress. The NDVI, with yellow-green coloring, was widespread across all coffee-growing areas. The Mogiana region, the far western portion of the Cerrado, and the Matas de Minas in the eastern border were among the most affected areas.
In November, NDVI readings improved, and Espírito Santo was the region that showed a significant recovery. Index values shifted from light green to deep green tones, indicating improvement, likely due to good agricultural practices and irrigation.
In December and January, Brazil’s coffee belt experienced a wide spatial distribution of rainfall. Rainfall amounts were below expectations in southern Bahia (50–100 mm), while the main arabica-producing regions in the South and Matas de Minas recorded volumes within the normal range for the month. The Cerrado Mineiro received above-normal rainfall. These favorable conditions were also observed in the main robusta-growing areas. As a result of adequate moisture and mild temperatures, most coffee areas showed deep green coloring and NDVI values above 0.4.Another notable variable in the 2024/2025 summer was the excessive heat. The Central-South region of Brazil experienced three heatwaves: from January 17 to 23, February 2 to 12, and March 1 to 8. Records indicate that several areas experienced more than 20 days with maximum temperatures above 35 °C, causing thermal stress.
Coffee farming is facing a new normal of extreme temperatures due to climate change. In tropical regions, prolonged periods of low rainfall can occur even during the rainy season, often accompanied by high temperatures. This phenomenon has become more intense and frequent, impacting agricultural production.
In some regions, prolonged exposure to extreme temperatures, combined with the absence of significant rainfall and low cloud cover over these months, has drastically reduced soil moisture and water availability for plants.
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This scenario triggered, in the middle of summer, a short-duration but high-intensity event known as a flash drought, characterized by the rapid intensification of water deficit, affecting soil moisture and compromising plant physiology within days or weeks.
In March, when most coffee-growing areas would typically be expected to show high NDVI values, this pattern has not been observed in 2025. The analysis of NDVI imagery reveals a significant increase in yellow-green patches, indicating a reduction in index values. This decline suggests a compromise in photosynthetic activity, reflecting the extreme thermal and water stress experienced throughout the season.
The light-colored patches observed in the Cerrado Mineiro region during the months of December and January are related to image noise and do not necessarily indicate that the region was experiencing water stress conditions.
Source: Copernicus. Design: StoneX
Monthly Rainfall and the Coffee Growth Cycle
Sources: StoneX e Chirps. Design: StoneX.
Robusta Coffee
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The conilon coffee-growing areas in southern Bahia and northern Espírito Santo generally show high productivity, uniform fruit development, and good vegetative conditions.
Both regions have been undergoing a continuous process of improvement in crop management, the introduction of new genetic materials, and investments in technology—factors that have significantly contributed to increased production. Based on monitoring carried out by StoneX, the 2025/26 conilon crop is expected to be the largest in history for both Espírito Santo and Bahia.
In February, high temperatures and below-average rainfall were recorded—conditions that could have negatively affected bean filling, impacting the size and weight of the fruits.
Source: StoneX.
However, the bean-filling phase was already well advanced during that period, thanks to favorable weather conditions in previous months, especially in January. By mid-February, most of the beans were already in the final stages of filling, which helped minimize the impact of adverse weather and reduced the risk of low yields. Furthermore, the good vegetative condition of the fields and the high percentage of irrigated areas in these regions helped cushion the effects of the climate.
On the other hand, in Rondônia, problems were concentrated during the flowering period, when a prolonged dry spell combined with high temperatures caused significant flower and fruit abortion and increased plant stress. As a result, the crop is expected to fall short of initial expectations.
Arabica Coffee
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The main arabica-producing regions recorded varying levels of impact. Naturally warmer areas were the most affected, with a particularly negative highlight on Alta Mogiana, in the state of São Paulo. The state, in fact, has a high proportion of pruned areas, especially in mechanized regions. Younger plantations—less than 8 years old but already in their productive phase—suffered significant damage, compromising their potential. São Paulo recorded the greatest losses.
In the Cerrado Mineiro region, although production is also below expectations, some municipalities with positive biennial cycles show crops in better condition, which will help maintain productivity at slightly higher levels. The larger percentage of irrigated areas in some of these municipalities also helped to mitigate part of the losses.
Source: StoneX.
In South of Minas, the main arabica-producing hub, the scenario is mixed. Some microregions with a positive biennial cycle are expected to have better productivity. Regions with milder temperatures also experienced less impact. Still, losses are present, varying only in intensity.
In Forest of Minas and southern Espírito Santo—regions that were already expected to have a negative biennial year in the 2025/26 crop—adverse weather conditions further worsened the decline in production. Moreover, a higher incidence of coffee borer infestation was observed in these regions. However, this increase is associated with the negative biennial cycle itself, as the lower fruit load favors the concentration of the pest on the few available cherries.
StoneX Lowers 2025/26 Coffee Crop Forecast
Overall, weather conditions not only reduced production in arabica-growing regions, but also led to an increase in pruning activity, surpassing typical levels in nearly all areas. This further compromises the potential of the 2025/26 crop. Vegetative damage was also severe in many fields, especially in younger plantations. In some cases, even after the return of rainfall, the crops were unable to fully recover.
As for robusta, despite the climatic impacts in the state of Rondônia, ongoing improvements in crop management and the widespread use of irrigation systems contributed to the strong development of the crop in Espírito Santo and Bahia. This is expected to result in a significant increase in robusta production in 2025/26.
As a result, StoneX revised its production estimate downward, now forecasting a total of 64.5 million bags—1.7% lower than the previous estimate and 2.1% below the 2024/25 crop. The estimate for arabica coffee was reduced to 38.7 million bags, a 3.3% drop compared to the previous forecast and a 13.5% decline from last season. Robusta production, on the other hand, is expected to reach 25.8 million bags, representing a 0.8% increase over the previous estimate and a 21.9% increase compared to the 2024/25 crop.
StoneX Estimates for Brazilian Coffee Production (Million Bags)
Source: StoneX.
Brazil to Start Coffee Harvest Earlier
The 2025/26 harvest is expected to begin earlier, driven by the advanced and uniform development of the coffee cherries. In some arabica-producing regions—especially in lower, warmer areas or those with irrigation and early flowering—initial signs of ripening were already observed in February. The same is true for conilon-growing areas.
The uniformity of fruit development across all producing regions is likely to support an early start to the harvest, ensure a steady pace of operations, and enhance coffee quality. The strong development during the fruit expansion phase, supported by adequate rainfall and efficient nutritional management, is expected to result in a good percentage of larger bean sizes. Additionally, the lower number of cherries per node reduces internal competition for water and nutrients, allowing the remaining cherries to develop more fully.
The next StoneX update will be released at the end of July or early September, following fieldwork carried out by the technical team to assess the yield of the 2025/26 harvest. The subsequent report is scheduled for late October or early November and will already include the first estimates for the 2026/27 crop, after the beginning of flowering in Brazil.
StoneX Estimates for Brazilian Coffee Production (Million Bags)
