Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Coffee Markets Slide as Brazil Harvest Pressure Builds and Supply Outlook Improves
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The global coffee market is under renewed downward pressure today, with futures continuing to soften as improving supply prospects—particularly out of Brazil—reshape sentiment across both Arabica and Robusta markets.
Arabica futures in New York are trading near multi-month lows, with the front-month contract hovering around the mid‑250s cts/lb range as of June 3, extending a broader correction that has seen prices fall more than 10% over the past month and more than 25% year-on-year. This marks a significant shift from the elevated price environment that dominated much of 2024 and early 2025, when supply shortages and weather risks pushed the market to multi‑year highs.
At the core of the current weakness is Brazil. Harvest activity is gaining momentum after earlier after disruptions, with improved weather conditions allowing picking to accelerate across key Arabica regions such as Minas Gerais. The advancing harvest is reinforcing expectations of a large crop, with estimates pointing to a potentially record or near-record 2026/27 output driven by the Arabica biennial “on-year” and generally favorable growing conditions.
This has triggered a clear shift in market psychology—from a supply-constrained narrative to one increasingly focused on surplus potential. Analysts are now anticipating that the global market could swing into a meaningful surplus during the 2026/27 cycle, following several years of tight balances and depleted inventories.
Recent price action reflects this transition. The ICO composite indicator averaged roughly 256–263 cts/lb in May, down from earlier peaks and confirming a broader easing trend across coffee groups, with Robusta prices showing the sharpest declines. The correction has been particularly pronounced in Robusta markets, where improving supply expectations—especially from Vietnam and Brazil—are weighing on values even as physical tightness lingers in some origins.
The market is also digesting the recent release of the USDA forecast for Brazil’s coffee crop. According to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Coffee Annual report released June 1, 2026, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at approximately 71.9 million bags, marking a sharp rebound following several years of weather‑impacted output.
The recovery is being driven primarily by Arabica. The USDA estimates Arabica production will reach 47.5 million bags, while Robusta (conilon) output is forecast at 24.4 million bags, highlighting broad-based gains across both segments. This surge reflects a combination of favorable weather conditions, improved rainfall patterns during key flowering periods, and the positive phase of Brazil’s biennial production cycle.
Despite the bearish tone, the market is far from fully settled. Several offsetting factors continue to inject volatility into the outlook.
First, logistics and supply chain dynamics remain a latent risk. While Brazil’s harvest is expanding supply, the pace at which coffee moves into export channels will be critical. Any renewed bottlenecks at ports or delays in shipments could temporarily tighten nearby availability, even in a larger crop year.
Second, weather risk has not entirely disappeared. Although conditions have recently improved in Brazil, localized events—including hail reported in parts of Minas Gerais—have raised concerns about potential quality impacts, even if overall production volumes remain largely intact. With the market entering the heart of Brazil’s harvest season, weather will remain a key short-term driver.
Third, the global supply picture remains uneven across origins. While Brazil is trending toward a large crop, other producers are showing mixed signals. Indonesia is entering the new marketing year with declining production and sharply weaker early exports, tightening Robusta availability at the margin. Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to ship strong volumes, although price direction there is increasingly tied to global futures rather than purely domestic fundamentals.
Demand, for its part, remains relatively resilient. Global consumption continues to expand at an estimated 2–3% annually, supported by steady demand in core markets such as the U.S. and Europe, alongside ongoing growth in Asia. However, the shift toward lower-priced blends during periods of high inflation has structurally supported Robusta usage, adding another layer of complexity to price formation.
Taken together, the coffee market is clearly in a transitional phase. The dominant narrative has shifted toward improving supply and softer prices, but the path forward remains highly sensitive to harvest execution in Brazil, export flows, and the still-fragile balance across key producing regions.
In the near term, downside pressure is likely to persist as Brazilian supply continues to enter the market. However, with inventories still relatively tight and weather risks ongoing, volatility is expected to remain a defining feature—keeping both commercial players and speculative money closely engaged in the months ahead.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11
August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.