Daily Coffee Report 8/6/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Coffee Tariffs Impact Economic Activity in the US in December
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In December, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure of 52.6 percent and a third consecutive month of expansion. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in December, registering 56 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.5 percent recorded in November. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in December, with a reading of 57.9 percent, 5 percentage points above November's figure of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in seven months with a reading of 52 percent, a 3.1-percentage point improvement from the 48.9 percent recorded in November — the fifth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.
"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 54.1 percent recorded in November. This is the 13th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
"The Prices Index registered 64.3 percent in December, its lowest level since a reading of 60.9 percent in March 2025. The December figure was a 1.1-percentage point drop from November's reading of 65.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 13 straight months.
"The Inventories Index registered 54.2 percent in December, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from November's figure of 53.4 percent and in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Inventory Sentiment Index expanded for the 32nd consecutive month, registering 54.1 percent, down 0.7 percentage point from November's figure of 54.8 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index was in contraction territory for the 10th month in a row, registering 42.6 percent in December, a 6.5-percentage point decrease from the November figure of 49.1 percent.
"Eleven industries reported growth in December, one fewer than in November, while the number reporting contraction remained at five. The December Services PMI® reading of 54.4 percent is 2.7 percentage points above the 12-month average of 51.7 percent. However, the 12-month average continues at its lowest level since August 2024 (51.7 percent) for the third month in a row; it's also the second lowest since June 2010 (51.4 percent)."
Miller continues, "December's Services PMI® is a continuation of a downward trend (as noted in previous reports) of more than 10 percentage points in the 12-month average since February 2022, when it was 62.6 percent. In an encouraging sign, the PMI® readings in November (52.6 percent) and December are in line with the same months in 2024 (November 52.5 percent; December 54 percent). Also, for the first time since February 2025, all four PMI® subindexes are in expansion territory. Tariff impacts and seasonality were common themes among panelists' comments. The Employment index returned to expansion for the first time since it registered 50.7 percent in May 2025. The Prices Index figure (64.3 percent) is 1.8 percentage points below the 12-month average of 66.1 percent. Respondents frequently mentioned impacts related to the holiday season and activity increases related to end-of-year activities or preparation for 2026."
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 11 services industries reporting growth in December — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Utilities. The five industries reporting a contraction in the month of December are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; and Construction.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
"We continue to experience higher prices, primarily due to the impact of the administration's trade and tariff policies. We are disproportionately impacted by importing seafood from Southeast Asia and coffee from South America." [Accommodation & Food Services]
"In general, business is flat. Value brands are still experiencing higher demand. But premium brands struggle to maintain market share." [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
"Rising labor and staffing shortages across facilities and auxiliary services, increasing regulatory and compliance requirements within the state, continued inflationary pressure on supplies and contracted services, ongoing supply-chain variability for specialized equipment and materials, heightened sustainability expectations and state-led environmental initiatives, fluctuations in enrollment affecting institutional budgets and purchasing volumes, and increased competition and pricing volatility in the regional supplier market." [Educational Services]
"Overall, business is healthy, most of our purchasing is staying consistent, and we are renewing most contracts as we head into the new year." [Finance & Insurance]
"Flu cases on the rise; the vaccine is not of much help this year. Respiratory equipment and supplies are seeing a surge in demand." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
"Annual pricing markups from key service and data providers are higher than they've been for many years — gradually drives costs up." [Information]
"Continuing uncertainty and apprehension regarding tariffs and the resulting impact on pricing." [Public Administration]
"We expect flat national home prices in 2026, with a forecast of a 0.5-percent increase and a plausible range from a decrease of 3.6 percent to a gain of 4.6 percent. Many metro areas across the country are already posting year-over-year declines, making 2026 the most likely year since 2010 for a modest national price dip." [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
"High business activity due to the holiday season." [Transportation & Warehousing]
"Year-over-year growth has been coming down for the last three months. Most likely, the government shutdown was a contributor." [Wholesale Trade]
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6
August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Daily Coffee Report 8/5/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.