Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Tue, 17 Sep 2024, 16:25

Coffee futures prices rise again amid weather concerns

Fernando Maximiliano

Continued dry and hot weather in Brazil during the coffee flowering period has market participants worried about possible impacts on the 2025/26 crop

Highlights

Arabica coffee up 9.9% on the week to US¢ 258.45/lb

In London, Robusta prices rose by 10.4%

Arabica coffee prices up 5.7% and Robusta coffee up 4.3%

Dollar down 0.6% to USDBRL 5.56

Brazil exported 3.73 million bags of coffee in August

Brazilian Arabica exports down 6.6%

Vietnam saw 14% drop in exports in August

Weather will continue to be the focus of market attention

NOAA increases probability of La Niña to 71%

After ending the previous week down amid advances in world coffee exports, coffee futures prices rose again last week amid concerns about the weather in Brazil. The scenario of reduced supplies of Robusta coffee in Asia persists, reflecting lower production in Vietnam and Indonesia and the inter-crop period in Vietnam.

In New York, the most active contract, expiring in December, ended Friday (13) at US¢ 258.45/lb, up 2,345 points (+9.9%). At the London terminal, the increase was USD 497/t (+10.4%) for the November contract, which closed the week quoted at USD 5267/t. During the week, the dollar fell 0.6% to USDBRL 5.56.

In Brazil, prices followed the trend observed abroad and ended the week higher. According to data from the Minas Gerais Coffee Trade Center (CCCMG), type 7 Arabica coffee was up 5.7% on the week, closing Friday at BRL 1435/bag. For Robusta coffee, data from the Vitória Coffee Trade Center (CCCV) pointed to a 4.3% rise for type 7 coffee, which closed at BRL 1465/bag. In addition, Robusta prices continue to be higher than Arabica prices.

Weekly intraday (most active contract) - September 9 to 13

Source: CommodityNetwork Traders' Pro. Design: StoneX.

Last week, one of the factors contributing to pressure prices was the increase in world coffee exports in July, reported by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), and the expectation of a strong increase in Brazilian exports in August, as preliminary data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) pointed to an increase of almost 5% in exports in the month. However, the data released by Cecafé showed a small increase in total exports and a substantial drop in Arabica coffee exports.

According to Cecafé data, Brazil exported 3.73 million bags in August, which represents an increase of 0.7% compared to August 2023. Exports of green coffee rose 1.4% to 3.4 million bags, with 924,000 bags of Robusta coffee (+31.4%) and 2.48 million bags of Arabica coffee (-6.6%). Exports of processed coffee fell by 6.3% to 321,000 bags. On the other hand, revenues rose by more than 48% to BRL 5.3 billion. According to the president of Cecafé, Márcio Ferreira, the performance of Brazilian exports was impacted by logistical problems and a lack of structure at the ports.

Seasonality of Brazilian coffee exports (million bags)

image-20240917182300-2

Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX.

In terms of fundamentals, the scenario remains practically unchanged, with the focus of participants on the weather conditions in Brazil and the restricted supply of Robusta coffee in Asia acting as a bullish factor for prices. Data from the customs authority in Vietnam showed a 14% drop in the country's exports in August, which totaled 1.2 million bags.

Cumulative exports for the first 11 months of the country's crop year (Oct/2023 - Sep/2024) totaled 23.4 million bags, representing a decrease of 12.7% compared to the same period last year. In addition, the harvest of the main crop in Colombia will begin in the coming weeks and should continue until mid-January, so exports from the country should advance in the coming months.

In the coming weeks, the weather will continue to be the focus of attention for market participants. The opening of the main flowering in the Arabica producing regions is expected to take place in the coming weeks and the return of the rains is essential for the fruit to set. However, the models indicate that substantial volumes of rain should only arrive in October. In addition, the latest update from the American agency NOAA has increased the probability of La Niña occurring from the SON quarter (September, October and November) from 41% to 71%, which tends to favor the return of the rains in the coming months. For more details, read the Weekly Weather and Climate Report.

El Niño/La Niña probabilistic forecasts

Source: IRI/CPC/NOAA. Design: StoneX.

INDICATORS

image-20240917182501-3

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

Coffee

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