• Arabica coffee reached US¢ 389.25/lb on ICE, a weekly drop of 4.45%.
• Robusta coffee fell by 0.15%, closing at USD 5,717/t on the London exchange
• Outlook of increased certified stocks put pressure on prices
• Pending stocks surpassed 110,000 bags, potentially converting to certified stocks
• Price differentials at origins declined, encouraging certification on the exchange
• Weather forecasts indicate substantial rains in the coffee belt in March
• Climatic models differ regarding rains in Minas Gerais
• Coffee imports increased 5.9% in the USA and 9.2% in the European Union
• Consumer coffee inflation rose 8.6% in January, accumulating 50%
After surpassing the historic level of 400 cents per pound, Arabica coffee futures ended last week in a downtrend. This decline was influenced by several bearish factors, including the first warning day for the March contract on the New York Exchange, which took place last Thursday (20), the outlook for increased certified Arabica coffee stocks, and the easing of weather concerns in Brazil.
Weekly Intraday (most active contract) – 02/17 to 02/21
Previously, futures prices had recorded gains due to reduced supply in the physical market and concerns over dry weather in Brazil, coupled with technical market factors. However, the change in weather forecasts for the next 15 days indicated a more favorable scenario, contributing to the drop in prices. Furthermore, the outlook for increased certified stocks was reinforced by the growth in pending stocks, which impacted the quotes.
Although certified Arabica coffee stocks have declined since the beginning of the year, there was recently a significant increase in pending stocks, which surpassed the 110,000 bag level. If approved in the grading process, these volumes could be counted as certified stocks, further pressuring prices. Another relevant factor was the decline in price differentials at the origins due to the rise in quotes on the New York Exchange. This situation tends to encourage the certification of new coffee lots on the exchange. Meanwhile, for Robusta coffee, stocks remained relatively stable.
Weather remains a critical factor for the coffee market. The latest weather report from StoneX highlighted divergences between the American and European models’ forecasts for the next 15 days. While the European model is more optimistic about the return of rains, the American model predicts a drier scenario, especially in the central-northern region of Minas Gerais. However, both models indicate substantial rains in the last week of February in the regions of Southern Bahia, Espírito Santo, Southern Minas Gerais, Triângulo Mineiro, and São Paulo.
The weekly weather and climate bulletin revealed that INPE’s BAM 1.2 model forecasted substantial rains for March 2025, with volumes reaching up to 140 mm in the coffee belt. Although some regions may record precipitation below the historical average, the reduction will not be significant.
In 2024, a significant recovery in coffee imports was observed in the United States and the European Union, after a year of contraction in 2023. In the USA, imports totaled 21.17 million bags, representing a 5.9% increase compared to the previous year, although the volume is still 10.7% below the record of 23.7 million bags registered in 2022. This growth was mainly driven by imports in the second half of 2024.
Cumulative Coffee Imports in the USA and Europe (million bags)
Source: USDA and Eurostat. Developed by: StoneX.
Similarly, imports by the European Union increased by 9.2% in 2024, totaling nearly 48.3 million bags. Despite the growth, the volume still remained 1.9% below the record of 49.22 million bags registered in 2022. As in the USA, the increase in European imports was also driven by the performance of the second half of the year.
In the coming weeks, market participants will continue to monitor weather conditions in Brazil, new research on the outlook for Brazilian production for the 2025/26 crop, and the impact of inflation on consumer coffee prices. The increase in feedstock prices has led the industry to pass these costs on to the final consumer, which may negatively affect coffee consumption. Data from IBGE indicate that consumer coffee price inflation recorded an increase of almost 8.6% in January, resulting in an accumulation of more than 50% in the 12-month inflation for roasted and ground coffee prices.
12-Month Cumulative Inflation of Consumer Coffee Prices in Brazil 
Source: IBGE. Developed by: StoneX.
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