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By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO. These deviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate, and thus, global coffee production.
Many of the global weather centers are forecasting La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 Northern Hemisphere winter.
Every La Niña is different, so the impact on Colombia’s coffee crop will have a lot to do with timing and severity, but historically, a La Niña event could cut Colombia’s crop by more than 5%.
Generally, La Niña in Colombia means heavier than normal rainfall, which was devasting during the 2010-2011 weather phenomenon as higher humidity levels meant more incidence of roya, the coffee leaf rust disease. Since then, 83% of the country’s coffee trees are now resistant varietals, and are therefore not susceptible to the disease.
However, should La Niña emerge, this would coincide with the beginning of the picking of the country’s main harvest in Colombia, which accounts for as much as 65% of the country’s total coffee output.
Heavy rainfall could block roads and trigger landslides, causing challenges and delays with transport.
For the secondary harvest, flowering could be negatively impacted if rains are too torrential, as this would reduce the critical sunlight and stress coffee plants, which most likely could reduce coffee output in 2022.
The La Niña coupled with the country’s second rainy season that begins in mid-September and lasts until mid-December could increase rainfall between 60% and 80% above normal in some regions.
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Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
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