Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 08 May 2023, 20:22

Coffee prices ended the week higher

Fernando Maximiliano

Leonardo Rossetti

The USDBRL depreciation and the indication of a drop in temperatures in the coffee belt supported the increase in New York and London prices

HIGHLIGHTS

•   Arabica futures end the week 1.1% higher.
•   Robusta prices increase USD 62/t (2.6%).
•   Cepea indicator for Arabica and Robusta fell by 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively.
•   Dollar drops 0.7% in Brazil and 3.6% in Colombia.
•   Dollar index ended the week 0.4% lower.
•   Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) increased their benchmark rates by 0,25 p.p.
•   253,000 new jobs were created in the US in April.
•   Coffee market reacted to forecast models showing a drop in temperatures.
•   US imported 1.96 million bags of coffee in March.
•   FNC: coffee production in Colombia fell 25% in April.
•   Conab to release its new crop survey on May 18.
•   USDA to release Attaché reports in May.
•   On June 22, the USDA will release global supply and demand estimates.

In the last week, Arabica's July contract increased 210 points (1.1%), closing the week at US₵ 185.95/lb. In London, the most active contract (July) ended with an increase of USD 62/t (2.6%), closing the week at USD 2471/t.

Despite the appreciation abroad, coffee prices in the Brazilian domestic market ended the week lower. The Cepea indicator for Arabica ended the week quoted at BRL 1,060.65/bag, posting a drop of 1.6% compared to the previous week. The indicator showed a drop of only 0,6% for Robusta coffee, closing quoted at R$ 664,29/bag.

Weekly Intraday (most active contract) – May 01 to 05

Source: CommodityNetwork Traders' Pro. Design: StoneX.

Coffee prices increased amid a drop of 0.7% in the Brazilian market, which closed on Friday's session (05) quoted at USDBRL 4.95. The US currency fell sharply in the Colombian market, completing the week with losses of 3.6%, closing the last session quoted at USDCOP 4525,5. The dollar Index fell 0.4% to 101 points.

The foreign exchange market reacted to the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), which increased the key rate by 0.25 p.p. but signaled that the interest rate hike cycle might be nearing its end. In Brazil, the Central Bank maintained the interest rate at 13.75% p.a. and ruled out the possibility of reducing interest rates in the short term. In addition, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, 253 thousand new jobs were created in the country in April, well above the average estimates, which pointed to a total of 185 thousand in the month, demonstrating the resilience of the American labor market.

In addition to macroeconomic and currency factors, the coffee market reacted to forecast models, which began to indicate the approach of a cold front in part of the country's coffee belt. Still reflecting the frost of 2021, the coffee market remains quite reactive to any indication of a temperature drop. While the model indicated that minimum temperatures could fall to nearly 6°C in some cities in Paraná, São Paulo, south of Minas Gerais and Cerrado, futures prices had an appreciation of 510 points on Friday (05). However, the latest models show that the front has dissipated. Access the latest minimum temperatures forecast report.

The latest data released by the USDA showed that 1.96 million bags were imported by the United States in March, representing a 16.4 percent increase compared with the previous month. However, the volume is still 8.6% lower than that observed in March 2022 and 2.7% lower than the last average of the last three yIn addition, ears. US coffee import data have pointed to an uncertain scenario regarding demand. USDA data showed that the total imported in 2022 reached 23.7 million bags, representing an increase of 3.2% compared to 2021 but still 4.3% below what was observed in 2019.

Seasonality of coffee imports in the US (million bags)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

According to data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC), coffee production in the country totaled 566 thousand bags in April, representing a drop of 25% compared to April 2022 – this is the lowest monthly production since September 2012. According to an interview given to CoffeeNetwork, the FNC explains that the fall occurred due to excess rainfall caused by La Niña and a lower fertilization level. If the beginning of the Colombian crop year to date (Oct-Apr) is considered, the country's production totaled 6.2 million bags, representing a drop of 11% compared to the same period last year.

Coffee production in Colombia (thousand bags)

Source: FNC. Design: StoneX.

On the fundamentals side, the coffee market will keep an eye on indicators that can anticipate the consumption trend, but the production prospects should gain more prominence. In May and June, several important indicators are expected to be released. On May 18, Conab will release its update for the Brazilian 2023 crop estimate– the last projection of the entity pointed to Brazilian production at 54.9 million bags, 37.4 million of Arabica and 17.5 million of Robusta.

In addition to Conab, the USDA prospects for coffee production in the countries should be reflected. Usually in the second half of May, but without a definite date, the USDA begins to release the reports of the organization's attaches in producing countries, which will bring details of coffee production and the official estimates for the 2023/24 crop. In addition, on June 22, the USDA will release its final report with its outlook for the global supply and demand balance.

Although there is still no evidence of what the USDA should project for 2023, bearing in mind the agency's estimate of a surplus of 4.8 million bags in 2022, while part of the market believed in a more modest balance, the USDA is expected to indicate a large surplus for the 2023/24 crop, which may bring bearish sentiment to the market. However, it is important to remember that the Brazilian winter is approaching. Therefore, as observed last Friday, the market may react with bullish movements to any new cold wave that may impact the coffee belt (05).

INDICATORS

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader's Pro.

Coffee

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