On Monday (15), Arabica coffee prices started the day with a strong appreciation, with the Jul/23 contract advancing 3.6% to end the day quoted at US₵ 189.4/lb, the highest level since the end of April. The market reacts to forecasts of low temperatures in Arabica coffee-producing regions. According to the StoneX minimum temperatures report on Monday, the south of Minas presents the prospect of lower temperatures in the coming days, with some of the monitored municipalities may record minimum temperatures below 6.0°C. Although there is no imminent indication of frost, the recent memory of the 2021 frost tends to make agents more apprehensive at times of cold fronts as winter approaches, which can generate short-term bullish movements. Still, the dollar depreciation to its lowest level in the Brazilian foreign exchange market in almost a year also supports prices.
It is also worth mentioning that the USDA started to release its Attaché reports, making available its prospects for production in Guatemala and India to date. New disclosures for key countries this week could provoke swings in the market in the coming sessions.
In addition, Cecafé released its export report last week, revealing another significant drop in exports in April. According to the data, last month, there was a total shipment of 2.4 million bags of green coffee, a drop of 13.8% compared to the same month last year, when 2.8 million bags were shipped, and retreating 14.2% compared to the average of the last five years, of 2.9 million. Of these, 123 thousand were Robusta coffee, a volume 13,6% lower than the 143 thousand exported in April last year, and 2,271 million were Arabica coffee, 13.8% below the 2,635 million in the equivalent month in 2022. According to the president of Cecafé, Márcio Ferreira, the market has shown greater liquidity, and many postponed purchases, which affected the result in recent months, may appear in May and June and improve the performance of the figures.
