Coffee prices advanced sharply over the past week, supported by low global stocks, the occurrence of frost in Cerrado Mineiro, the continuation of tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports by the United States, lower-than-expected production in Brazil, and forecasts of dry weather during flowering. Together, these factors acted in a bullish manner, lifting quotations both in the international and the Brazilian domestic markets.
Not all of these factors are new, but they remain relevant. The scenario of reduced stocks had already been impacting the market and was the main driver behind the rallies observed in the first quarter of the year. Despite the recent update that further reduced the outlook for Brazilian arabica production, this information is not necessarily new, as there is already a consensus about the sharp decline in the crop. The truly new elements in this equation are the imposition of tariffs by the United States and the occurrence of frost in Cerrado Mineiro. The expectation of dry weather during coffee flowering is not exactly new either, as recent years of adverse climate had already raised similar concerns, but it nevertheless exerts considerable weight on coffee prices.
In New York, the most active contract closed the week up 13.2%, accumulating an increase of 36.3% in August. In London, robusta coffee registered a weekly rise of 14.3% and a monthly increase of 42.7%. In Brazil, arabica gained 14.7% during the week and 25.7% in August, while robusta advanced 18% in the week and accumulated a 41.1% increase over the month.
The progress of harvesting brought some short-term relief, but this effect proved limited. Despite the fast pace of the Brazilian harvest, global stocks had already been drawn down in recent years due to a succession of adverse weather events that reduced production. Thus, even with the entry of the new crop, global supply remains tight.
In Brazil, robusta production advanced, but arabica suffered significant losses. StoneX had already reduced its estimate by 13.5% in April and, in last week’s update, once again cut its projection for the crop that is now in its final harvesting stage. The downward revision reflected yields below expectations in Sul de Minas, Cerrado, Mogiana and southern Espírito Santo. The new estimate for arabica dropped from 38.7 million to 36.5 million bags, representing a 5.7% reduction compared to the previous estimate and an 18.4% drop relative to the 2024/25 crop. São Paulo was the negative highlight, with a 10.9% cut compared to the prior estimate and a 35.2% reduction versus last year. Cerrado Mineiro fell by 9.7% and Sul de Minas by 6.6%. Robusta, in turn, was maintained at 25.8 million bags.
Fonte: StoneX.
Another relevant factor was the frost of August 11, which had not been anticipated by weather models. StoneX estimated that the event may have reduced the production potential of Cerrado Mineiro by around 424,000 bags. There is also the possibility of additional losses depending on the impact of the low temperatures on flower buds, something that can only be assessed after flowering begins.
Internationally, the approach of Typhoon Kajiki to Vietnam initially raised concerns about robusta production, given that the country is the second-largest coffee producer in the world and the leading producer of robusta. However, no direct impact on production is expected, as the phenomenon is occurring in regions without coffee plantations. The main producing areas, located in the Central Highlands, are not in the typhoon’s path, which removes significant risks to the Vietnamese crop. The major concern, in this case, lies in potential impacts on logistics and port infrastructure, which are critical for the country’s coffee exports.
The 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee also exerted bullish pressure. The US is highly dependent on Brazil, which accounted for 35% of imports in 2024 and over 30% in the first half of 2025. This measure tends to tighten supply in the American market, at a time when coffee inflation is already rising. Consumer coffee prices in the US rose 33.4% through July, according to the BLS. By contrast, coffee inflation in Brazil lost strength, dropping from 82.2% in May to 70.5% in July, while in the European Union it stabilized at around 20%.
Inflation in roasted and ground coffee consumer prices
Sources: IBGE, BLS and Eurostat. Prepared by: StoneX.
Furthermore, the imposition of tariffs is expected to trigger a reorganization of global trade flows. Arabica-producing countries such as Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras will likely redirect more volumes to the United States, attracted by higher prices. The markets left unattended by these exporters will open more space for Brazil to ship part of its production to these already established destinations, but with a greater share. The net effect will be a reallocation of trade flows, with impacts on volumes and global prices.
With the harvest practically concluded, at 98.2% overall (100% of robusta and 96.9% of arabica), attention now turns to weather conditions during flowering. Robusta flowering has already begun in Espírito Santo and Bahia, but arabica is still awaiting the more intense phase. Climate models indicate a risk of irregular rainfall and the possibility of La Niña until the end of the year, which could bring below-average precipitation in the coffee belt between September and October, normalizing only from the end of October. Heat waves are also on the radar. If this scenario materializes, flowering could be compromised, as was the case in 2024, further tightening global supply.
Coffee harvest pace in Brazil
Source: StoneX.
Therefore, the coffee market remains supported by a combination of bullish factors: reduced stocks, frost in Cerrado, US tariffs, climate uncertainties during flowering, logistical risks in Vietnam and the reorganization of global trade. From now on, weather will be the main driver of prices, in a context where supply is already in a delicate situation.
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