Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
Translation generated by AI
• Favorable weather improves outlook for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop
• Risk of sudden drought raises concerns under La Niña influence
• Diplomatic rapprochement between Brazil and the U.S. may ease tariffs
• Brazilian exports rise more than 20% in monthly comparison
• Annual export decline reflects lower supply and U.S. tariffs
• Vietnam increases exports by 58.5% in September
Coffee prices ended last week lower, reflecting a combination of climatic and geopolitical factors. Improved rainfall prospects in Brazil and signs of diplomatic rapprochement between the Brazilian and U.S. governments generated expectations that the tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee imports could be lifted. In addition, the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a global risk-off movement and a stronger dollar.
With the intensification of the trade war between the two powers, China tightened its rules for rare earth exports, while the United States threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese products. This scenario strengthened the dollar and negatively affected the commodities market. The DXY index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against a basket of developed-economy currencies, rose 1.2% to 98.61 points. The dollar also advanced 3.5% against the Brazilian real, closing the week at R$ 5.52. As mentioned in previous analyses, the appreciation of the U.S. currency tends to pressure coffee futures prices, as it discourages selling from producing countries.
In New York, the most active contract, for December delivery, fell 1,770 points, or 4.5%, to 373.05 U.S. cents per pound. In London, the most traded contract, now for January delivery, declined by 131 dollars per metric ton, or 2.9%, to 4,391 dollars per ton.
This Monday, coffee futures closed higher, recovering part of the losses from last week. The arabica contract for December delivery gained 1,215 points, equivalent to 3.26%, closing at 385.20 U.S. cents per pound. In London, the most liquid contract, for January delivery, rose 76 dollars per ton, or 1.73%, ending the day at 4,467 dollars per ton. The upward movement was mainly driven by the dollar’s depreciation during the session. After rising 2.82% on Friday and closing at R$ 5.52, the U.S. currency retreated 1.33% this Monday, trading at R$ 5.44 at the time of writing this report.
Arabica coffee futures prices (US¢/lb) and robusta coffee (USD/ton)
The decline observed in international markets contrasted with the mixed performance of the Brazilian domestic market over the past week. According to the Cepea indicator, arabica coffee posted a slight gain of 0.3%, closing the period at R$ 2,191.74 per 60-kg bag. Robusta coffee, on the other hand, remained practically stable, ending the week at R$ 1,388.41 per bag.
Weather conditions in Brazil continue to be a determining factor. Meteorological models point to consistent rainfall volumes in the main producing regions, which favors flowering and supports expectations for a good 2026/27 crop. Although the La Niña phenomenon is expected to persist until early next year, projections indicate meaningful precipitation that should benefit crop development. Even so, prolonged periods of drought or excessive heat could alter this scenario, keeping weather as a critical variable for prices and productivity. A relevant risk associated with La Niña is the potential occurrence of sudden drought, known as a *flash drought*, which could negatively impact crop development and compromise yield potential during key growth stages.
On the diplomatic front, the market reacted positively to the call between the U.S. president and the Brazilian president. The gesture was interpreted as a sign of a possible resolution of the tariffs imposed by the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was appointed as the lead negotiator, with Brazil represented by Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and Vice President and Industry Minister Geraldo Alckmin. This rapprochement has the potential to reduce trade barriers and, consequently, ease tariff restrictions on Brazilian coffee imports.
Regarding export data, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) reported that the country exported 3.75 million bags in September, an 18.4% decline compared to the same month in 2024. Revenue, however, increased 7.6%, totaling R$ 7.35 billion. Exports of green coffee reached 3.45 million bags, of which 2.96 million were arabica (down 10%) and 489,700 were robusta (down 47.8%). Exports of processed coffee fell 19.5% to 295,500 bags.
Brazilian coffee exports (million bags)
It is important to note that, on a monthly comparison, Brazilian exports rose by more than 20%, continuing the recovery trend observed since June. This increase reflects the seasonal pattern of coffee exports, which traditionally intensify in the second half of the year as product availability grows. Thus, the volume of 3.45 million bags of green coffee exported in September aligns with the sector’s typical seasonal curve, reinforcing the gradual upward trend in Brazilian shipments over recent months.
Among export destinations, shipments to the United States plummeted by 52.8%, totaling 332,800 bags, directly reflecting the impact of tariffs. There were also declines in exports to Germany (16.9%), Italy (23%), and Belgium (52.6%). Conversely, exports to Colombia surged by 567.6%, reaching 107,280 bags, highlighting a reconfiguration of trade flows in response to restrictions imposed by the U.S. market.
Finally, data from Vietnam’s customs authority indicated exports of 1.35 million bags in September, an increase of 58.5% compared to the previous year. For the crop year to date, the country shipped just over 20 million bags, representing a 1.13% decline on an annual basis. The surge in Vietnam’s exports in September helped meet part of global demand, also contributing to the pressure on Brazilian robusta exports.
Vietnamese coffee exports (million bags
INDICATORS TABLE
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Daily coffee report
August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
