
Daily Coffee Report 8/13/26
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By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

Colombia Coffee Plantations To Be Hit Strongly In September By El Niño: Ideam
Bogota (Coffee Network) - Colombia’s weather agency Ideam and leading monitoring centers have identified September as the month when the El Niño phenomenon is expected to intensify across the country, according to the country’s weather department Ideam.
Warnings from power generation industry groups have gained momentum in recent days, as electricity prices could rise again amid concerns that reservoir levels may fall below required thresholds.
Against this backdrop, while El Niño is forecast to strengthen in September, drought conditions are expected to have already taken hold nationwide by that point.
By the ninth month of the year, Colombia would have experienced nearly five consecutive months of reduced rainfall, prompting calls for water and energy conservation measures in both households, the agricultural sector including coffee and large industries.
According to Ideam, there is a 61% probability that the initial conditions of the phenomenon will develop in May–July 2026.
In September 2026, the probability of the phenomenon consolidating rises to 90%. From this month onward, the event is expected to be official and fully hit across the national territory.
December 2026 – February 2027: The peak intensity is projected during this period, potentially reaching moderate to strong levels, coinciding with the country’s main dry season.
Colombia usually improves its coffee harvest when it experiences El Nino as strong sunlight promotes water stress in coffee plants-. Yet a severe drought in coffee plantations cause significant yield losses (40–80%), reduced bean quality, and increased mortality rates. The water deficit induces leaf dropping, premature cherries, and poor flowering, while high temperatures exacerbate stress, leading to, stunted growth and increased susceptibility to pests like the berry borer.
In a recent energy conference, several electricity associations warned that this El Niño could the strongest in 120 years.
By Diana Delgado
Source: Ideam
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August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.


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