Colombia Coffee Production and Exports Fall Sharply as Weather Disruptions Undercut Washed Arabica Supply

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 13:53

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Colombia’s coffee sector remains under pronounced pressure, with the latest data from the National Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) confirming a sharp contraction in both production and exports during March. For the global coffee market, the numbers reinforce growing concerns around near‑term availability of quality washed arabica at a time when certified stocks remain low and buyers continue to compete for consistent supply.

According to the FNC, Colombia’s coffee production in March totaled 754,000 60‑kg bags, representing a decline of 306,000 bags, or 28.86%, compared with the same month last year. As the world’s largest producer and exporter of washed arabica coffee, the scale of the monthly decline underscores the extent to which Colombia’s crop has been disrupted by adverse weather conditions rather than structural demand weakness.

The slowdown is even more evident when viewed over the broader crop cycle. For the first six months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, cumulative Colombian production stood at 6.223 million bags, down 29.20% year on year. This compares with approximately 8.621 million bags produced during the same period in the previous coffee year, highlighting a sustained production gap that has now extended well beyond a single harvest window.

The primary driver behind the weaker output has been persistent and excessive rainfall during the first half of 2025, which disrupted flowering, cherry development, and harvest timing across key growing departments. Market participants note that coffee flow from Colombia’s main crop tapered off earlier than usual, leaving exporters and roasters navigating a tighter supply environment during what is typically a more stable post‑harvest period.

Export performance has mirrored the decline in production. The FNC reported that Colombia exported 788,000 bags of coffee in March, a reduction of 462,000 bags, or 36.96%, compared with the same month last year. For the first six months of the current coffee year, cumulative exports totaled 5.810 million bags, down 18.24% from approximately 7.103 million bags shipped during the same period of the previous season.

The discrepancy between the sharper drop in production and the relatively smaller decline in exports reflects Colombia’s strategic role in supplying high‑quality arabica to premium markets. Exporters appear to have prioritized shipments into key destinations despite tighter internal availability, although the pace of exports suggests that inventories are being drawn down rather than replenished.

Colombia’s position is further complicated by its unique two‑harvest structure. The country is currently harvesting its mid‑year mitaca crop, which traditionally helps stabilize supply after the main harvest. Conditions for the mitaca crop have, to this point, been comparatively more favorable than earlier in the year. However, the FNC and trade sources caution that progress may be uneven across regions.

Lingering effects of last year’s excessive rainfall have impacted crop development in certain areas, with some regions expected to experience harvest delays. These conditions also raise concerns around parchment drying, a critical step in Colombia’s washed arabica production process. Unlike mechanically dried systems used in some origins, Colombian coffee is traditionally sun‑dried on open‑air patios, making the crop particularly vulnerable to prolonged humidity and intermittent rainfall. Any delays or quality risks at this stage could further constrain exportable supply or shift more coffee into lower‑grade categories.

Looking ahead, Colombia’s total coffee production for the 2025/26 coffee year is forecast to come in lower year on year at approximately 13.50 million bags, compared with a larger 14.86 million‑bag crop harvested in the completed 2024/25 season. Based on this outlook, the country is expected to target exports of around 11.50 million bags during the current coffee year, assuming domestic consumption remains relatively stable.

Early expectations for the 2026/27 coffee year offer little indication of a rapid recovery. The median forecast currently places Colombia’s next crop broadly in line with the current season, again at around 13.50 million bags. This suggests that structural tightness in the washed arabica segment may persist, even as other origins report more optimistic production prospects.

For the broader coffee market, Colombia’s data add another layer of near‑term supply risk at a time when attention is increasingly focused on larger forward‑crop expectations in Brazil and rising robusta availability from Vietnam. While those larger origins may ease pressure on global balances later in the cycle, Colombia’s reduced output and export pace continue to underpin premiums for high‑quality arabica and reinforce sensitivity in New York futures to any additional weather or logistical disruptions.

In this context, Colombia’s situation serves as a reminder that global coffee supply dynamics remain highly uneven. Even as aggregate production forecasts improve, availability of consistent, high‑quality washed arabica remains constrained — a factor likely to remain central to price formation and physical differentials in the months ahead.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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