Colombia could lose 20% of its cacao land, but could adapt: Study
Bogota (Commodities Network )- Colombia could lose 20% of its cocoa land due to weather changes in the departments located in the Caribbean region and the country’s northeastern region, according to a new scientific study, but there are options to adapt those low lands, according to Colombia’s main public agricultural research institution AGROSAVIA, which conducts scientific research and technological development for agriculture and livestock in Colombia, said.
The greatest impacts would be concentrated in the lowlands of northern Colombia, and the crop could shift toward higher-altitude areas, especially in the Andean foothills. However, the areas that currently concentrate most of the country’s production would maintain favorable climate conditions, AGROSAVIA added.
The research was conducted by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, the country’s cocoa federation Fedecacao, and AGROSAVIA. The study combines projections of future climate with information on areas where cacao is currently cultivated and where its wild relatives grow, to estimate how production conditions in the country could change over the next 25 years.
The models indicate that the greatest losses in suitability would be concentrated in lowland areas of the country, in the departments of Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, Sucre, Antioquia, and northeastern departments such as Arauca, Casanare, Meta, and Vichada. In these areas, rising temperatures and more intense or irregular rainfall could translate into lower yields, greater stress for the crop, and increased economic uncertainty for cacao-growing families.
“Recent events such as the cold wave that had global implications but affected northern Colombia—causing major floods in the lowlands of the Caribbean region and other Andean areas—show how climate change and climate variability are already generating real impacts,” said Carlos Eduardo González, an AGROSAVIA researcher and one of the study’s leaders.
However, the outlook is not uniform. The foothills of the Andes mountain range, where most of the country’s production is currently concentrated, would maintain favorable climate conditions. In addition, the study projects an expansion of about 3% in suitable areas, mainly toward higher altitudes, suggesting a potential shift in cultivation in response to climate change.
These results provide key inputs for territorial planning and for defining differentiated strategies based on climate, altitude, and environmental conditions.
“This means that cacao production in Colombia will not disappear, but will likely undergo a gradual process of geographic redistribution,” González added.
Wild cacao: a strategic advantage for adaptation
One of the study’s most relevant findings is that wild cacao could expand in areas where favorable conditions emerge if temperature and rainfall trends continue as projected toward 2050.
“Wild cacao has an advantage that cultivated cacao does not: it has evolved for thousands of years under extreme climatic conditions. Populations that today grow in very hot, very dry, or very rainy areas are precisely the ones that interest us, because that is where we can find genes that could help develop varieties more resistant to future climate changes,” explained Tobias Fremout, a researcher with the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT who also participated in the study. CIAT an international agricultural research center focused on improving farming in tropical regions, especially in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
This finding reinforces the importance of conserving native lowland forests where these populations live, as they represent a valuable source of genetic diversity for breeding materials that are more tolerant to climate stress.
Scientific basis for policy and adaptation
These results highlight the importance of anticipating climate change through territorial planning strategies based on scientific evidence and concrete adaptation measures. Establishing agroforestry systems—where cacao grows under the shade of other trees—helps moderate temperatures and conserve soil moisture. In areas where more frequent drought periods are expected, supplementary irrigation could be key to stabilizing production.
These measures can be complemented by production diversification and the use of more resilient genetic materials. In this context, access to reliable climate information will help support producers and guide decision-making alongside institutions such as the Ministry of Agriculture, the UPRA, and Fedecacao, to reduce risks and ensure the sustainability of Colombian cacao in the coming decades.
The study’s results will be integrated into the platform www.cacaodiversity.org to guide the best adaptation options for cacao cultivation to climate change at the farm level.
The study was published in the scientific journal Regional Environmental Change.
Colombia produced 67,678 tonnes of cocoa in 2024, up from 59,831 in 2023 and higher than the 62,158 tonnes in 2022, according to Fedecacao
By Diana Delgado
Source: Agrosavia
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