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By: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Commodity futures positioning is showing growing divergence beneath the surface. Precious metals continue to trade near record highs despite limited follow-through from speculative positioning, while copper’s strong recovery is beginning to show early signs of fatigue. At the same time, WTI crude oil positioning is quietly improving, hinting at a potential shift in sentiment after a prolonged period of long liquidation. This report reviews managed fund and large speculator positioning across key commodity markets.
There is a notable divergence between positioning in key metals and their underlying markets. Silver and gold continue to trade at record highs, yet large speculators and managed funds appear hesitant to chase prices higher. At the same time, they show little appetite to trade against the trend by initiating short positions. The net result is that many traders may simply be missing the move.
Managed fund net positioning as a percentage of open interest across major commodities, showing elevated long exposure in gold, silver and copper, mixed positioning in crude oil and corn, and net-short exposure in natural gas, soybean oil and wheat based on CFTC COT data.
Chart prepared by Matt Simpson – Data Source: CME, CFTC, LSEG
Copper has now recouped its 25% single-week loss from August, although positioning signals suggest bulls may want to tread more cautiously from here.
Bullish clues are also emerging in WTI crude oil futures following a prolonged period of long liquidation. While WTI is not currently a popular market for bullish bets given the headline backdrop, major turning points often occur when few expect them.
Silver futures have rallied sharply, yet net-long exposure has trended lower in recent months as large speculators reduce long positions rather than add fresh exposure. That pullback in longs has dragged overall net positioning lower, even as prices continue to grind higher.
Asset managers show a similar pattern. Long exposure has eased, but short interest remains subdued, suggesting bears are unwilling to step in front of a fast-rising market. For now, silver’s rally appears driven more by reduced selling pressure than by aggressive new buying, leaving positioning supportive but less stretched than price action alone might suggest.
Silver futures positioning versus price, showing net-long exposure easing as large speculators and asset managers trim longs, while short positions remain subdued despite a strong price rally, based on CFTC COT data.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson – Data Source: CME, CFTC, LSEG
Another example of futures pricing diverging from net-long exposure is gold. As with silver, gross short positions remain minimal, although gold has not seen the same aggressive long liquidation witnessed in silver.
Large speculators remain net-long by around 22.8k contracts, with managed funds holding roughly 12.3k contracts. Positioning therefore does not appear stretched or at a sentiment extreme among these trader groups, even if prices could be argued to look extended on the upside — particularly when compared with silver.
Until price action suggests otherwise, however, gold’s broader trend remains pointed higher.
Gold futures positioning versus price, showing net-long exposure among large speculators and managed funds remaining moderate, with limited short interest despite prices trading near recent highs, based on CFTC COT data.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson – Data Source: CME, CFTC, LSEG
It has been nearly six months since copper prices plunged 25% in a single week last August, following President Trump’s surprise 50% tariff on selected copper products. Since then, prices have recovered around 44% and are now trading above the August high. However, last week’s doji suggests momentum may be faltering after a strong advance.
Traders should also note that net-long exposure to copper declined for a second consecutive week among both large speculators and managed funds. While gross long positions were flat among asset managers last week, they increased among large speculators. This does not point to an imminent repeat of last year’s sharp sell-off, but it does suggest the rally may be entering a more vulnerable phase, with bulls perhaps needing to tread more cautiously.
Copper futures positioning versus price, showing net-long exposure easing for a second week among large speculators and managed funds, while prices trade above last year’s highs following a sharp recovery, based on CFTC COT data.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson – Data Source: CME, CFTC, LSEG
Bullish clues are emerging in WTI crude oil positioning, with managed funds flipping to net-long exposure three weeks ago and adding to net-longs in each report since. Gross long positions have been edging higher since October, while gross shorts appear to have peaked in late November.
Large speculators, however, look less convinced. Gross longs have been largely flat, while short positions have risen marginally. Although large speculators remain net-long overall, positioning sits near its least bullish level in over 15 years — a backdrop that could signal a sentiment extreme among bears and leave traders alert to the risk of a surprise upside move.
WTI crude oil futures positioning versus price, showing managed funds flipping to net-long exposure while large speculators remain cautiously positioned near historically low bullish levels, based on CFTC COT data.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson – Data Source: CME, CFTC, LSEG
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