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CONAB Forecasts Brazil’s 23-24 Coffee Crop at 54.94 Million Bags

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

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CONAB Forecasts Brazil’s 23-24 Coffee Crop at 54.94 Million Bags
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor 
alexis.rubinstein@stonex.com

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their first official forecast, Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB, has estimated the country’s 2023-2024 coffee crop to total 54.94 million bags, an increase of 7.9% compared to the previous harvest, which closed at 50.9 million bags.

The total area destined for coffee farming in the country in 2023, accounting for the two most cultivated species in the country (Arabica and conilon), totals 2.26 million hectares, an increase of 0.8% over the area of the previous harvest, with 1.9 million hectares destined for crops in production and 355,500 hectares in formation. "It is worth noting that, in cycles of negative bienniality, producers usually carry out more intense cultural treatments in crops, which will only go into production in the coming years," said Guilherme Ribeiro, President of Conab. "In recent harvests, stability in the Brazilian coffee area has been offset by productivity gains, represented by the technological change observed in coffee production in the country."

For Arabica coffee, Conab's initial estimates point to a resumption of production in Minas Gerais, the country's main coffee growing state, which positively impacts the national perspective, even with the effects of negative bienniality on many of the producing regions. "In general, there is an increase in the total area of the country in production in relation to the past cycle, as well as an estimate of an increase in average productivity, particularly driven by the expected average yields in Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Paraná," explains Rodrigo Souza, deputy superintendent of Agricultural Information. "Thus, the production expectation in this first survey is 37.43 million bags of Arabica coffee, being 14.4% higher than the volume obtained in 2022".

As for conilon coffee, after a record harvest in 2022, the outlook for the current season signals a certain reduction in productive potential, particularly due to climatic complications recorded in Espírito Santo, the main producing state of the species, which strongly impacted crops in the early stages of the cycle. "Even with the increase in the area in production, the estimate for the average yield should decrease compared to the previous harvest," says Rafael Fogaça, the Company's Crop Monitoring Manager. "This impacts, consequently, from the perspective of total production, which is pegged at 17.51 million bags, 3.8% lower than the national volume obtained in the last harvest".

In other states, the Bulletin announces an expected production in São Paulo of 4.72 million bags of the Arabica species, representing a growth of 7.7% compared to the result obtained in 2022. In Bahia, the expected growth is 0.6% in total production, with 3.62 million bags throughout the state, 1.23 million bags of Arabica and 2.39 million bags of conilon. In Rondônia, production is expected to reach 2.94 million bags of conilon, an increase of 5.1% compared to last season. In Paraná, where the cultivation is exclusively arabica coffee, there is a forecast of growth of 47.2% in productivity, with production reaching 733,000 bags. In Rio de Janeiro, the estimated production of 259,600 bags of Arabica coffee reflects a reduction of 11.8% compared to the last harvest. The state of Goiás also signals a 16% reduction in production, and is expected to produce 233,300 bags of coffee in 2023. In Mato Grosso, the forecast is for growth of 2%, reaching a volume of 232,500 bags.

Market – In the coffee market analyses conducted by Conab, Brazil, the world's largest producer of the grain, followed by Vietnam and Colombia, exported 39.8 million bags of 60 kilos of coffee in 2022, which represents a 6.3% drop compared to the previous year. This decrease in exports, according to the Bulletin, results from the decline in the exchange rate in Brazil and the reduction in domestic supply in the period. With the real stronger against the dollar in 2022, interest in coffee exports lost momentum compared to the previous year.

"In recent cycles, coffee plantations have been hampered by climate effects, especially by dry weather under the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, and by the frosts that occurred in the winter of 2021, which negatively impacted production in 2022," says Allan Silveira, Superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab. The decline of stocks, influenced by the climatic adversities that limited the production of Arabica coffee in 2021 and 2022, inhibited coffee exports in 2022.

Brazilian coffee has been marketed internationally with 145 countries, with the United States and Germany being the main destinations. In terms of values, coffee exports reached the highest value ever recorded in the historical product series in 2022. Despite the drop in the amount exported by Brazil, the high price of coffee abroad allowed the export of the product to reach US$ 9.2 billion in 2022, corresponding to an increase of 45% compared to the value observed in 2021.

Alexis Rubinstein

 
  • Coffee

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