Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
CONAB Pegs Brazil’s 2023-2024 Coffee Crop at 54.74 Million Bags
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CONAB Pegs Brazil’s 2023-2024 Coffee Crop at 54.74 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Brazilian coffee production in the 2023 harvest is expected to register growth of 7.5% compared to the last cycle. This year, the harvest is estimated at 54.74 million bags benefited against 50.92 million bags in 2022. The good result is expected even in a year of negative bienniality, as shown by the 2nd survey, released today by the National Supply Company (Conab). If the estimate for this year is compared with the volume harvested in the 2021 harvest, the last year of negative bienniality, the increase reaches 14.7%.
"Because it is a perennial crop, the drought and frosts that occurred in 2021 influenced the productive performance of coffee crops last year, not allowing the plants to reach their productive potential. As the weather conditions in 2022 were better, it is possible to verify a recovery of this production, especially in the areas producing Arabica coffee, "explains the president of Conab, Edegar Pretto.
This year, the expectation for Arabica coffee is that 37.93 million bags will be harvested, which represents 69.3% of coffee production in the country. If confirmed, the volume represents an increase of 15.9% over the 2022 harvest. "This increase is explained both by the 1.9% increase in the area in production of the species, combined with the 13.7% gain in crop yield, as seen in Minas Gerais, the largest producer of Arabica," says the Company's Crop Monitoring Manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos.
As for conilon coffee, the outlook for the current season is a production of 16.81 million bags, a reduction of 7.6% of the last harvest. The expected increase in the harvest of Rondônia, Bahia and Mato Grosso did not compensate for the estimated productivity losses in Espírito Santo, the largest producer of conilon. "During the development of the grain in the state of Espírito Santo, adverse conditions were recorded, especially the initial phases of the crop cycle, impacting on the performance of the coffee plantations," explains Vasconcellos.
Area – According to the survey released by the Company, the total production area for coffee cultivation in the country in 2023, accounting for the two most cultivated species in the country (arabica and conilon), totals 1.87 million hectares, an increase of 1.7% over the area of the previous harvest. The area in formation, the one destined by producers for the introduction of new plants or even to carry out cultural treatments, such as drastic pruning, is estimated at 375.5 thousand hectares in formation, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous cycle.
Market – In the first four months of this year, Brazil exported 11.2 million bags of 60 kg. The volume represents a decrease of 20.3% compared to the 14.1 million bags exported in the same period of 2022. The reduction repeats the behavior recorded in 2021 and 2022 due to the restriction of domestic supply in the first months of the year, which limits the availability of coffee for sale to the foreign market. This scenario of restricted stocks in early 2023 was influenced by the climatic adversities that limited coffee production in Brazil in the last two years. "However, the good expectation for the current harvest, after improvement of weather conditions, favors the recomposition of inventories and can contribute to the recovery of the export of the product in the second half", analyzes the market analyst of Conab, Fábio Silva Costa.
For the prices of the product, the tendency is for prices to fall from the advance of the harvest, although significant reductions are not expected, since the low inventories support coffee prices and prevent significant falls in prices at this time.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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