CONAB Revises Down 2024-2025 Brazil Coffee Crop Estimate by Nearly 7%
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their third forecast of Brazil’s 2024-2025 coffee crop, Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB projected the total production to be 54.79 million bags, a 6.8% decrease from the previous forecast issued in May of 58.81 million bags. This new figure represents a decline of 0.5% compared to the production obtained in 2023.
The beginning of the current harvest indicated a new growth in the harvest, considering the situation of the crops at the time and the high biennial cycle. However, adverse weather conditions, such as droughts, sparse and poorly distributed rainfall, along with high temperatures during the fruit development phases, reduced the yields initially predicted. As a result, the national average coffee productivity is estimated at 28.8 bags/ha, 1.9% below that obtained in the 2023 harvest.
For arabica, the estimate points to a production of 39.59 million bags, which still represents a growth of 1.7% above the previous harvest. Only Minas Gerais, the main coffee producer in Brazil, will be responsible for harvesting 27.69 million bags of this species, will see a reduction of 3.4% compared to the total harvested in the previous harvest. This reduction is due to droughts, accompanied by high temperatures during the reproductive cycle of crops and aggravated from April, when rainfall practically ceased throughout the state, with records of occasional rainfall and low volumes.
In São Paulo, the weather also affected the performance of crops. Even so, a growth of 8.2% is expected compared to the result obtained in 2023, and may reach a production of 5.44 million bags this year. A similar scenario is seen in the arabica-producing regions of Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and in the Bahian cerrado area, where the projected increase is expected to be smaller than initially estimated.
As for conilon, a 6% drop in production is expected, estimated at 15.2 million bags. In Espírito Santo, the main producer of conilon in the country, the harvest is estimated at about 9.97 million bags, a reduction of 1.9%. In Rondônia and in the Atlantic region of Bahia, the harvest should register a significant drop of 16.4% and 13.3% respectively. In Bahia this decrease is mainly explained by the lower productivity recorded, while in Rondônia by the smaller cultivated area, a reflection of adjustments made due to new and more accurate information collected, with a project to map the areas in progress.
Area destined to coffee growing in the country in 2024, for arabica and conilon, totals 2.25 million hectares, with 1.9 million hectares in production, with a growth of 1.4% compared to the previous year, and 345.16 thousand hectares in formation, with a reduction of 4.5%.
Market – Coffee prices in the market remain attractive for producers. The product remains valued, since the supply of the grain remains adjusted. In Brazil, the world's main producer, production in the 2021 and 2022 harvests was limited due to climate issues. In addition, production in Vietnam also suffered from the weather, which reduced Asian coffee stocks. This scenario of limited supply and high demand puts pressure on world stocks and influences the sharp rise in robusta prices in the international market, which is also reflected in the appreciation of arabica.
Given this scenario, Brazilian exports registered 32.1 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee, from January to August 2024, a volume that corresponds to an increase of 40.1% compared to the same period in 2023, according to data provided by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). This volume is the largest ever exported by Brazil, considering the first eight months of each year. If coffee exports in the final months of 2024 remain high, the country could surpass the record recorded in 2020, when 43.9 million 60-kilogram bags were shipped.
Alexis Rubinstein
