Conab Revises Down 2024 Coffee Crop Estimate to 54.2 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their final forecast for the 2024-2025 crop, CONAB has pegged the country’s total production at 54.2 million bags, a decline of 1% compared the previous forecast of 54.79 million bags issued in September. This also represents a 1.6% decline compared to the 2023-2024 crop.
Climatic conditions have proven to be challenging for the coffee sector in the last four years - frosts, water restriction and high temperatures, caused by climatic phenomena. The adverse weather recorded last year and at the end of 2023 had an impact on important coffee-producing regions, negatively influencing the average productivity of crops.
The total area destined to coffee growing in the country, in 2024, totals 2.23 million hectares, of which 1.88 million hectares with crops in production and 353,600 hectares in formation. The national average coffee productivity, ended at 28.8 bags/ha, is 1.9% below that obtained in the 2023 harvest.
The largest coffee-producing state in the country, responsible for 52% of production, Minas Gerais registers a harvest of 28.1 million bags, a drop of 3.1% compared to the total harvested in the previous harvest. This reduction is due to droughts accompanied by high temperatures during the crop cycle and, aggravated, from April, when rainfall practically ceased throughout the state, with records of occasional rainfall and low volumes.
Arabica and conilon – Among the species, despite this year of positive biennial cycle, the average performance of arabica shows a small increase of 0.2% due to climatic adversities during the development of crops observed, mainly in Minas Gerais. As a result, the production of arabica totals 39.6 million bags of processed coffee, an increase of 1.8% compared to the previous harvest.
As for conilon, Conab verifies a reduction of 5.9% in the average productivity, reaching 39.2 bags/ha, which results in a harvest of 14.6 million bags. In Espírito Santo alone, production reached 9.8 million bags, a reduction of 3.1% compared to the volume obtained in 2023. Although the cycle in the state of Espírito Santo presented a very good productive potential at its beginning, the climatic conditions between October and December 2023, with episodes of intense heat waves, provided a drop in this potential in the 2024 harvest. The survey of the coffee harvest in Espírito Santo is carried out in conjunction with the Espírito Santo Institute of Research, Technical Assistance and Rural Extension – Incaper. Possible differences with other institutions are always a reason for analysis by Conab.
Another important producer of conilon, Rondônia registers a harvest of just over 2 million bags of coffee, 31.2% below the result obtained in the previous harvest. As in Espírito Santo, the adverse weather recorded at the end of 2023 also impacted the volume harvested last year, in addition to the area adjustment due to mapping.
Market – Brazil exported 50.5 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee in 2024, a number that represents a new record and an increase of 28.8% compared to the previous year, according to consolidated data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). This export generated revenues of US$ 12.3 billion in 2024, the highest value ever recorded in Brazil, representing an increase of 52.6% compared to 2023.
The exported quantity can be composed of production stocks from different crop years. In this sense, it is understood that the supply picture cannot take into account only the volume produced in the last harvest.
Among the reasons that contributed to the growth in the country's coffee exports in 2024 are the appreciation of the product in the international market and the appreciation of the dollar. The scenario of adjusted global supply and demand influenced the rise in product prices last year, even with the recovery of production in some countries. Another bullish factor for prices was the occurrence of new climatic adversities in important producing countries, which limits the recovery of future supply.
Alexis Rubinstein
