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CONAB Revises Down Brazil’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop Forecast to 50.38 Million Bags

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

CONAB Revises Down Brazil’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop Forecast to 50.38 Million Bags 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor 
 

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their third survey released today, CONAB has pegged Brazil’s total 2022-2023 coffee crop at 50.38 million bags, down 6.2% from their previous estimate of 53.7 million bags.

The new forecast of 50.38 million bags represents an increase of 5.6% compared to the previous year, however.

According to conab's survey, the area destined for national coffee in 2022 is 2.24 million hectares, with 1.84 million hectares for crops in production and 402,000 hectares of area in formation, which represents a slight increase in total cultivated area compared to the past harvest. The average national coffee yield is also expected to grow and is projected at 27.4 bags per hectare, 3.7% higher than the previous year. However, despite the recorded recovery, the increase is lower than expected for 2022 because it is a year of positive bienniality.

"Adverse weather has negatively influenced productivity in the last two cycles. In 2020 the development of the crop was influenced by the lack of rainfall and last year, in addition to the drought, strong frosts were recorded in important producing regions", explains the Director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies, Sergio De Zen.

For Arabica coffee, Conab expects a production of 32.41 million bags, an increase of 3.1% compared to the previous harvest. "The growth is limited by the lack of rainfall in the reproductive phase of the crop, still in 2021, and by the frosts that occurred in June and July last year, especially in the states of São Paulo, Paraná and Minas Gerais", says the Superintendent of Agricultural Information of the Company, Candice Romero Santos.

Strongly impacted by the adverse climate, the state of Minas Gerais, the main coffee producer in the country, has an estimated production of 22 million bags, with a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to the 2021 harvest. The largest reduction occurred in the south of the state, with a drop in productivity around 17.8%. In Bahia, where the climate was more favorable for the development of crops, an estimated growth of 11% in field performance is estimated, from 21.1 bags harvested per hectare to 23.4 bags per ha. In Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, the improvement in productivity is even greater, reaching 30.3 bags per hectare in Rio de Janeiro and 27.5 bags per hectare in the capixabas of Arabica coffee, an increase of 55.9% and 29.5% respectively.

In the case of conilon, the Company projects a new production record, estimated at a volume close to 18 million bags, an increase of 10.3% compared to the previous harvest. Less affected by the characteristics of the bienniality, the plant of this variety has shown improvement in productivity every year, reaching 46.2 bags harvested per hectare, the highest number ever recorded. In addition to the good performance, an area increase of around 3.4% is also expected, estimated at 388,800 hectares.

The main producer of conilon in Brazil, Espírito Santo has projected production of 12.23 million bags, an increase of 9% compared to the previous harvest. This year, Rondônia is the second largest producer of this grain variety, with an estimated harvest of 2.8 million bags of the benefited product, followed by Bahia with an expected harvest of 2.33 million bags.

"The trend is that conilon production continues to grow in favorable weather conditions. There is room for improvement in productivity in important producing regions. Bahia has the best performance for this species in the country, as a productivity of 57.9 bags per hectare. For Espírito Santo and Rondônia, the estimate is that 47.2 bags and 43.1 bags are harvested per hectare, respectively, which demonstrates the potential of the crop," said The Company's President, Guilherme Ribeiro.

Alexis Rubinstein

 
  • Coffee

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