Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
StoneX Media
Copper markets are navigating an unusual period where financial positioning is exerting greater influence over prices than many traditional physical indicators. Record price swings, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and the rapid emergence of artificial intelligence as an investment theme have encouraged investors to treat copper as a macro asset alongside gold and equities. Understanding market sentiment has now become almost as important as tracking mine supply or industrial consumption when assessing copper's outlook.
Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, has spent years analyzing global metals markets and the interaction between macroeconomics and commodity pricing. Her discussion with Giles Plumb, StoneX Head of Base Metal Trading, combines fundamental market analysis with the day-to-day perspective of an active copper trader, offering a unique view of how investment behavior is reshaping price discovery.
Copper price movements increasingly reflect investor positioning rather than immediate physical market conditions. Giles Plumb argues that "copper is now classed in the same sort of conversations as gold. It's an investment product as not just a base metal", highlighting how market participants increasingly allocate capital based on macro themes instead of consumption trends. Relatively modest changes in speculative positioning can now generate outsized price moves because commodity futures remain considerably smaller than major equity or bond markets. Momentum trading has become a significant force behind copper's recent volatility, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and enthusiasm surrounding critical minerals.
The artificial intelligence narrative has become one of copper's strongest investment catalysts even though its direct contribution to consumption remains limited. While Scott-Gray reminds us that "AI is less than 2%" of current copper demand, Plumb observes that "people are looking to own copper" because of the broader AI story rather than today's physical market balance. Expectations surrounding future data centre construction and electrification are attracting speculative capital well ahead of the actual demand cycle. This disconnect is likely to create periods where copper prices overshoot underlying fundamentals before eventually returning closer to levels justified by physical consumption.
The experts argue that macro investors increasingly view copper alongside assets such as gold because of themes including artificial intelligence, critical minerals and inflation, resulting in larger speculative flows.
No. According to Natalie Scott-Gray, AI currently represents less than 2% of copper demand, although it has become a much larger investment narrative than its present physical consumption would suggest.
The copper futures market is relatively small compared with major financial markets, meaning new investment flows can have a disproportionate impact on prices and short-term volatility.
Access live prices, supply and demand data, and actionable market commentary focused on the Metals sector. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and see how our Metals insights can elevate your strategy.
Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today
--- Written by Frédéric Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Experts: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst and Giles Plumb, StoneX Head of Base Metal Trading
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Open interest in LME traded options has climbed to record highs as copper's price swings grow faster and deeper. StoneX metals specialists explain how AI-driven positioning, risk-off selloffs and thin liquidity are pushing market participants beyond outright futures.
StoneX LME Week Metals Outlook 2026
The copper market outlook hinges on U.S. tariffs, with the CME to LME arbitrage pricing in less than the 15% refined copper tariff on the table. Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst EMEA and Asia, hosts Giles Plumb, Head of Base Metal Trading, Philip Meijer, Options Sales Trade, Michael Price, Senior Base Metal Sales, and Michael Cuoco, Head of Fund Sales, Metals and Bulks, on why copper is breaking away from the base metals complex. Record options volumes and U.S. critical mineral status are drawing new money into copper, while AI data centers add demand through power, cooling and grid build out. A strong dollar weighs on aluminum and zinc as producers hedge out to late 2027.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
