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Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Corn falls while market awaits WASDE; in Brazil, the week's balance is positive 

  • Bullish
  • Heated global consumption;
  • USDA estimates lower stocks for the 2025/26 crop at a global level;
  • Exports remain strong in the United States;
  • Strong ethanol production in the USA;
  • Outlook for smaller planted area in the USA in 2026;
  • Climate risk in Brazil.
  • Bearish
  • Expansion of 2025/26 planted area in Brazil;
  • Robust crop in the United States;
  • Larger ending stocks in the United States.

CBOT

In the first week of December, corn futures in Chicago retreated slightly, with the March/26 contract ending the period at US¢444.75/bu (-0.7%).  

Intraday (15 min) Mar/26 contract - CBOT

image 123671

Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.

The US¢450/bu level has proven to be an important resistance for the contract, which touched this resistance four times since the beginning of November, always retreating shortly after. The contract closed above this level only once in this period, on Nov 13, when there was an expectation that the November WASDE (published on Nov 14) would report a tightening of the American corn balance sheet. As the result did not materialize, the market retreated subsequently. 

As we enter another WASDE week, the market turns its attention once again to the report. It is known that the USDA rarely makes major revisions in the December report. Still, in the end, the market expects a negative revision for American supply, regardless of whether this comes in December or January (which is when the heavier revisions are published). 

In any case, a more pressured domestic consumption in the USA will act as a counterforce to the possible supply cut, delivering considerable uncertainty to the market, which is trading very cautiously on the eve of the report. The US export market remains active, with room for new upward revisions, although we have seen agents more cautious about this possibility in recent times. Regardless, the fact is that the trend is a greater consolidation of the USA in international trade, in the face of Brazil's greater absence. 

Speaking of the South American country, the market expects an upward revision in domestic production, given the good development of the first corn crop. Even so, we believe we must be cautious with the Brazilian supply in the 2025/26 season, as risks for the safrinha corn have grown slightly due to localized delays in the soybean cycle in some locations in the Brazilian Center-West. 

Another point of attention will be China. The country may have its crop slightly revised downwards due to wet weather during the corn harvest period in the country. In any case, we will hardly see an import number for the country much higher than the 8 million tons estimated in the last WASDE, since local authorities are discussing a number closer to 6 million tons. 

Brazil

Corn futures in Brazil showed a movement in the opposite direction to Chicago throughout last week. The March/26 contract traded on B3 ended the period trading at R$75.91/bag (+1.3%). Physical prices also showed an upward trajectory, with a possible movement of stock formation for the turn of the year. 

Intraday (15 min) Mar/26 contract - B3

image 123672

Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

As already commented, despite a relatively healthy development of the first corn crop, some concerns regarding the second crop next year may be stimulating buying activity in the domestic market, a fact that will continue to be monitored closely. 

Another factor that supported Brazilian corn during the week was a strong devaluation of the real against the dollar, with the dollar reaching R$ 5.43 on Friday (+1.9%). Former president Jair Bolsonaro indicated his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, to represent his political group in next year's presidential elections. The nomination displeased the market, which had placed greater hopes on the name of São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas to represent Bolsonaro in the upcoming elections, which helped lead a risk-aversion sentiment in the domestic market. This week, we will still see interest rate decisions in the USA and Brazil, which may continue to deliver high volatility to the exchange rate. 

 

Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 123673

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/bag)

image 123674image-20250902142429-4

Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

Spot prices in Brazil (USD/ 60kg bag)

image 123675image-20250902142435-5

Source: StoneX.

INDICATORS

 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
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