By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Crude oil is rebounding from the $73.50low after touching oversold conditions not seen since 2025, with the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Iran tensions and ongoing inventory drawdowns all lending support. Yet the bounce sits inside a broader decline, and the path higher runs into resistance well before crude oil can claim a true reversal. Whether that pressure eases or returns depends less on the chart than on a single geopolitical variable. The outcome of U.S. Iran nuclear negotiations now sits at the center of crude oil's next move.
Razan Hilal is a Chartered Market Technician and Market Analyst at FOREX.com, where she covers crude oil and currency markets through technical frameworks such as Fibonacci retracements and momentum readings. Her coverage tracks the price levels and geopolitical flows running through markets like WTI crude oil, which connect directly to how U.S. Iran negotiations feed into oil price pressure.
"We have oversold conditions last seen in 2025 supporting that short term bullish rebound", and that signal is doing much of the work behind the move off the $73.50 low. The rebound is testing the previous year's respected support near $76.20, a level that has now turned into resistance, with Fibonacci retracement levels placing the next hurdle near the $78 mark and the $80 psychological mark above it. Hilal frames the advance as a short term rebound within a broader decline rather than a confirmed reversal, with each level offering a fresh pullback risk. The trend only changes character much higher up the chart. In her view, "should you have a sustained hold above the $85 zone, then we can shift medium term expectations to bullish once again on the chart".
Beyond the technical map, Hilal points to geopolitics as the variable that decides whether crude oil pressure eases or returns. She notes that a sustained advance "would likely align with resurfacing geopolitical tensions, declining supply or increasing demand across the globe", tying the upside case directly to risk around the Strait of Hormuz and the flows that pass through it. The negotiating table now matters as much as the chart, with Hilal flagging "developments in the Lebanese conflict and in the nuclear negotiations" as the key points of tension to watch. A credible path to lasting peace between the United States and Iran would relieve overall pressure from prices, while any breakdown would feed the geopolitical risk premium back into crude oil. Consequently, the rebound holds only as long as those talks stay live.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, CMT, FOREX.com Market Analyst
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Crude oil is climbing off its $73.50 low, but the rebound runs into resistance long before it can confirm a genuine trend change. The deciding factor now lies in U.S. Iran nuclear negotiations, where a path to lasting peace would ease price pressure and renewed tension would lift it.
June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract is undergoing a structural transformation, with rising U.S. export volumes shifting its role from domestic benchmark to global price signal. As storage at Cushing, Oklahoma tightens toward operational minimums, the connection between American crude flows and international oil markets has never been more direct.
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