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Daily Coffee Report - 05/17/2024

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Ended Week Higher

 

Arabica coffee futures ended the week higher with a firm showing on Friday settling 870 points higher to 206.60 basis July24. On the week the market held support near last week’s lows of 192.15, with a high today of 207.15.  Open interest has continued to steadily fall, down 4,981 lots to 219,869 as of yesterday’s close, with most of the changes reflecting long liquidations. We will need to wait until Monday to get a full picture of today’s price action. Most of the volume today was seen on the break above the 203, with total volume reaching 36,323 lots including 9,164 switches. Yesterday, the USDA attache pegged Costa Rica’s crop at 1.18 million bags in 2024/2025. Today - Itaú BBA reported that it maintained the estimate for the 2024/25 Brazilian initial coffee harvest phase, at 69.4 million 60 kg bags. In the monthly study by the bank's Agro Consultancy, released today, the harvest in Vietnam, is projected at 27 million bags of coffee, "but still completely undefined", noted the bank. Technically today’s activity puts Arabica coffee futures in a new range of 200/210.

ICE Arabica certified stocks increased 10,505 bags to 760,383 bags, pending grading decreased 12,535 bags to 34,993 bags. A total of 18,545 bags graded today, 10,505 passed and 8,040 failed.

COT (CIT) Non-commercials decreased their long position by 6,675 lots to 54,536 lots long and decreased their short position by 3,337 lots to 14,531 lots short, with a net long position of 40,005 lots in the week to May 14th.

Robusta July contract settled at $35318 +98 with a 3410/3525 range. A break higher largely triggered by short term shorts covering into virtually zero origin selling. We found ourselves in a position where near term downside momentum had dried up and this is a trigger for new shorts that went in on the way down to cover. Volume remains very low and structure also kept in line with Jul/Sep seeing a 63/68 range on 3,031 lots. Robusta Jul24 3200/3100 putspread vs sell 3800 call vs buy 3455Δ30 traded 900x @ -31.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 5.1093 -0.40%

USDCOP 3228.5 +0.02%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

36,323

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

16,815

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

763

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

  • Coffee

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