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Daily Coffee Report - 07/09/2024

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Rally

 

Coffee futures made new yearly highs today in a violent rally that saw prices rise 18.05 and 12.9 cents at the session highs for arabica and robusta, respectively. Sep24 arabica traded to a high of 252.35, settling 15.55 higher at 249.95 on 72,845 contracts of total volume – about double the average volume we saw over the past month. Sep24 robusta traded to a new all time high of 4,667, settling 286 higher at 4634 on 22,833 contracts of total volume.

The move today comes off the release of yesterday’s delayed COT report showing the managed money long in both terminals practically unchanged. We also had the release of Vietnam export data confirming what we already know – the market is tight and will continue to be so until the new crop, echoing our comments yesterday regarding differentials in both Brazil and SE Asia. Over the past week we have seen the BRL strengthen from 5.70 to 5.41 against the dollar, seemingly lifting any sort of resistance that was holding terminal prices back.

Tomorrow, we expect Brazil export data from Cecafe after the close. Expectations are mixed, as government SECEX shows a month to month increase, while Cecafe preliminary data has been softer. Comments out of Brazil continue to repeat logistics have been a nightmare and could play a factor in the data.

ICE raised margin requirements for the Sep24 and Mar25 arabica futures contracts from $6,000 to $6,645 and $5,490 to $6,120 per contract. Maybe this is enough to take some momentum out of the rally, at least temporarily. 

At the time of writing

USDBRL 5.4188 -0.97%

USDCOP 4048.1 -0.45%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

72,845

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

22,833

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

1,838

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

  • Coffee

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