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Daily Coffee Report - 08/30/2024

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Closed Unchanged

 

Coffee futures traded both sides of unchanged today, with most of the action centered around Robusta that reached a new contract high trading to 5180 basis Nov24 up $279 from yesterday’s close on good volume of 26,451 lots. The price action looked like a position unwind: steady buying throughout the morning that ended just before the settlement window. Once the bid was gone Robusta prices fell $279 to unchanged but was able to gather enough support to still settle positive. Arabica prices did not track the Robusta move higher but did trade in positive territory for most of the session until the London terminal turned around, settling 355 points lower basis Dec24.

Most of the traded volume in the London terminal was done through spreads, the Robusta Nov/Jan traded to a high of $260 premium but went out unchanged at $207. Arabica spreads played a lesser role in today’s action, but the nearby Dec/March did trade to a weekly low of 1.90 before the close. 167 lots of Brazilian conilon were tendered today, and open interest began the day at 3,345 lots in the spot contract. Certified stock in both terminals were flat this week, with the biggest development being the Arabica pending gradings.

With the Brazilian new crop exports flowing at full pace, we could continue to see gradings in the short term. We are not too far away from the Colombia and Central American crops either, so there is a case for spot inventories to improve and begin to put pressure on the spreads at the front end of the curve. The latest COT report showed the managed money long is still close to 30% of the market’s open interest, something that will likely remain a constant if the structure holds. The market now needs to now do the job of moving coffee from origin to where it is needed.

At the time of writing:

USDBRL  5.6127 +1.05%

USDCOP  4,131.87 +0.58%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

40,337

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

26,451

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

1,904

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

  • Coffee

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