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Daily Coffee Report - 10/11/2024

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Consolidate Lower

 

Arabica Futures main contract Dec24 closed the week down 5.30 from last Friday and down -2.70 on the day at 252.05. The NY market was unable to sustain momentum to the upside in the early hours above 254 area. The biggest activity was in the USD/BRL, where the real generated some pressure, trading weaker to 5.65. As mentioned in the previous day's commentary, we ended the week consolidating between 252/253. The switch Dec/Mar attempted to the upside at 1.45 but ended negative with the minimum change down -0.05 at 1.25.   The certified stocks have maintained a steady inventory above 800K since June 12th 2024 until this month on October 3rd when they briefly went below at 795,874 bags, but are now ending the week at 815,087 bags. The biggest movements so far this month were a deduction of 12,655 bags on the 1st of October and an addition of 9,280 bags on the 7th of October. The pending grading, on the other hand, started the month with 52,160 bags fluctuating to a low of 44,726 to the new high for the month and a current total of 63,031 bags. Traders know the market is not shy to test the levels above in the area of 260/265, but the overall market is aware of the potential breach below recent lows around 243 and that a confirmation signal lower in that area could possibly extend a correction up to the Gap left at the beginning of August at the 226/227 area. Today was Nov option expiration.

Robusta Nov24 contract settled the week 241 points lower from last Friday and down -86 on the daily at 4828. Although another 62 lots were taken out of the certified stocks to the new total of 4,191 lots, it was not enough to support Robusta, which now seems weaker to start next week. The switch Nov/Jan traded at new lows with a range of 147/174 and a settlement down -25 at 147. Nov24 contract FND is on October 28th.

COT (CIT) Non-commercials decreased their long position by 4,059 lots to 48,963 lots long, and increased their short position by 641 lots to 12,939 lots short, with a net long position of 36,024 lots in the week to October 8th.  

At the time of writing:

USDBRL 5.6149  +0.57%

USDCOP 4,208.98 -0.10%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

33,698

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

18,123

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

445

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

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