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Daily Coffee Report - 12/10/2024 SP

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Futuros de Café Negociaron Volátil al tocar Precios en los Nuevos Altos Historicos

 
  • StoneX Coffee Team
  • Market Intelligence

El mercado del café experimentó una sesión altamente volátil hoy, impulsada por los precios del arábica que se movieron dentro de un rango de más de 19 centavos. Los precios alcanzaron un alto histórico de 348.35 centavos por libra, base marzo 2025, después de abrir con una brecha al alza de 8 centavos, negociando 1,200 lotes hasta 341.55 en el primer minuto. Esto ocurrió en reacción a la publicación de Bloomberg de ayer sobre la estimación de Volcafe para la producción de arábica en Brasil en 2025/2026, que proyecta 34.4 millones de sacos, indicando un déficit de 8.5 millones de sacos en la temporada. Este número, por ahora, es una excepción frente a las estimaciones previamente publicadas por el mercado, que en su mayoría oscilan entre 38 y 42 millones de sacos. La reacción del mercado hoy subraya la incertidumbre en torno al impacto del clima adverso en la producción de arábica en Brasil. Aún es temprano para evaluar con precisión la magnitud total de este impacto, y se esperan revisiones a los pronósticos de producción en los próximos meses.

A mitad de la sesión, los precios retrocedieron desde sus altos, con el arábica en Nueva York cerrando 14.3 centavos por debajo y el robusta en Londres terminando $288 por debajo de su pico. El arbitraje arábica/robusta finalizó el día con poco cambio cerca de 95 centavos, y los switches en ambos mercados también operaron con poco cambio, sin acompañar el movimiento inicial al alza del precio fijo. Cabe destacar que los switches de la nueva cosecha de arábica alcanzaron hoy nuevos altos de contrato, con el U5/Z5 alcanzando una prima de 13.65 centavos y el Z5/H6 una prima de 10.75 centavos.

Mientras el mercado digiere estos desarrollos, la cosecha futura de arábica en Brasil seguirá siendo un factor clave que influirá en los precios del café y en las perspectivas del mercado en general.

Al momento de escribir este artículo:

USDBRL 6.0417  -0.60%

USDCOP 4,369.27 -0.54%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

59,597

ICE Robusta

Volume:

24,991

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

1,331

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

  • Coffee

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