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Daily Coffee Report - 05/30/2023

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Extend Fall 
 
StoneX Coffee Team
 

Arabica coffee futures closed lower on Monday as perspectives of the actual crop improved and exports of Brazil are expected to recover during the second half of the year, according with Marcio Ferreira Cecafe’s Director.  Mr. Ferreira spoke at event Friday evening in Sao Paulo. A good pace of exports should continue during the first semester of 2024, he added.  He forecasts another record year for the Robusta variety, in contrast with the recent CONAB’s that expects a reduction of 7.6 % for the Robusta crop.  The contract with most of the activity for July delivery settled 450 points lower at 177.10 cents a pound. A sizable speculative selling since the beginning of the session put pressure on the market. A little bounce early on the day, was not able to attract solid buying, causing the sell-off that accelerated as prices broke the 180-support area.   The real declined 0.7 to one-month low of BRL5.0690, adding the bearish sentiment. The certified stocks fell by 5,859 bags to 592,634 bags. Pending grading 0.

Robusta Jul23 contract settled at $2562 -12 with a 2592/2552 range. Robusta remains resilient despite the technical sell off in Arabica. A mixture of light commercial buying and sporadic speculative arb selling was noted in the later part of the session which lent some support to flat price, but it seemed apparent specs were more concerned with liquidating longs in Arabica through key technical levels than they were selling Robusta. The volumes back that up with another day of low volume, only 6k lots traded on the most liquid Jul23 contract. Jul/Sep remains firm seeing a 38/49 range settling at +42 which continues to put pressure of the shorts are FND approaches. Jan24 2000 put traded 1000x @ 37, Jul23 2400 put traded 500x @ 15.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 5.0524 + 0.69%

USDCOP 4390.2 - 1.07%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

56,136

ICE Robusta

Volume:

14,981

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

403

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
 
 
  • Coffee

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