Coffee futures started the week on the defensive, with both New York and London contracts posting losses as forecasts pointed to improved rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-producing regions. In New York, the December 2025 Arabica contract (KCZ25) traded between 390.35 and 377.50 cents per pound before settling at 381.35 cents, down 9.40 cents or 2.41% on the day. In London, the November 2025 Robusta contract (RCX25) ranged between 4,569 and 4,424 dollars per metric ton and closed at 4,471 dollars, a decline of 56 dollars or 1.24%.
The tone across both markets was negative as traders weighed improving weather prospects in Brazil against persistent macroeconomic uncertainty tied to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown standoff and heightened political attention following the Trump–Lula meeting. These developments contributed to a cautious risk tone and increased volatility in the Brazilian real.
Technically, the Arabica market struggled to sustain momentum above the 380-cent level and retreated sharply, suggesting short-term exhaustion after recent gains. Despite the correction, prices continue to hold above key moving averages, with the 100-day exponential average near 347 cents providing a critical area of medium-term support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.7 remains neutral, while the slow stochastics indicator has started to turn lower, pointing to potential additional weakness in the near term. Downside support is seen around 370 cents, with more substantial buying interest likely emerging between 351 and 347 cents, while resistance remains at 381 to 390 cents.
London Robusta futures mirrored New York’s move, easing after encountering resistance near 4,600 dollars per ton. The 50-day moving average, currently around 4,350 dollars, serves as a key pivot point, while the 100- and 200-day averages at 4,240 and 3,970 dollars continue to define medium-term trend support. The RSI at 56.4 suggests balanced momentum, though the stochastic oscillators have turned lower from overbought levels, hinting that prices may consolidate before attempting any renewed advance. The recent rally from August lows appears to be losing steam as traders reassess weather and macro signals.
On the fundamental side, attention remains focused on Brazil, where the latest StoneX Meteorology forecasts show a meaningful increase in rainfall expected over the next ten days across major coffee regions. Southern Minas Gerais, Mogiana, and Espírito Santo should receive between 40 and 80 millimeters of precipitation in several key zones, while the Robusta-producing regions of Rondônia and northern Espírito Santo are also forecast to benefit from scattered showers. These rains come at a crucial stage following uneven flowering in September, as improved and consistent moisture could help stabilize the 2026 crop outlook by supporting fruit set and early development.
Beyond the weather, global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. The unresolved U.S. government funding debate is dampening risk appetite, underpinning the U.S. dollar, and applying downward pressure on commodities. Meanwhile, political tensions around the Trump–Lula meeting have contributed to volatility in Brazilian assets and the real, influencing export and hedging activity from local producers. Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data and central bank commentary later this week for additional clues on the broader macro direction.
In summary, coffee markets began the week under pressure as improving rainfall forecasts in Brazil reduced weather-related supply concerns, while macro and political uncertainty continued to cloud the near-term outlook. Unless new bullish catalysts emerge, the technical structure suggests a consolidation phase, with downside risk toward 370 cents in New York and 4,350 dollars in London. Sustained support above these levels, however, could maintain a range-bound pattern until clearer signals emerge from weather developments and global market sentiment.
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-34-3199-1550
ICE Arabica
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Volume:
27,138
ICE Robusta
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Volume:
15,166
Brazil Arabica
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Volume:
1,581
