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Daily Coffee Report 12/17/2025

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures extended their decline for the fourth consecutive session, approaching September lows in New York and posting fresh three-month lows in London. Speculative long liquidation remains the primary driver of weakness, with managed money continuing to lead the selling.

Open interest in March arabica fell by 2,031 lots yesterday to 75,833 and is likely to show another reduction today. Commercial activity was muted, with origin absent on the downside and industry participants waiting for a deeper correction. In contrast, robusta open interest continues to rise, suggesting managed money is now close to flat or net short. March robusta broke decisively through 3,800 today, trading down to 3,676, while the March/May spread weakened by $18 to close at a $51 premium.

Tomorrow marks the last trading day for December arabica. As of yesterday’s close, open interest stood at 82 lots; 63 lots traded today, pushing the Dec/March spread 20.50 cents lower to a 6.50-cent premium after touching a 10.15-cent discount intraday. So far, 790 lots have been tendered during the delivery window. Meanwhile, the March/May arabica spread rallied 70 points to close at a 16.25-cent premium, bouncing off the 50-day moving average at 15.55 and showing underlying support despite the flat price weakness.

A weaker Brazilian real has also influenced the market, encouraging forward selling from Brazil’s new crop. The BRL has depreciated nearly 4% against the U.S. dollar since December 5, moving from 5.31 to 5.52.

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report released today shows that non-commercials increased their short positions by 434 lots to 18,215, and increased their long positions by 287 lots to 40,893, resulting in a net short position of 22,678 lots for the week ending December 2.

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

39,622

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

29,262

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

483

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
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