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Daily Coffee Report 3/23/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures settled lower today as both terminal markets were swept into the broader risk‑off tone across commodities, driven by fast‑moving geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Markets were notably volatile after President Trump announced a five‑day postponement of planned U.S. strikes on Iranian energy and power infrastructure, citing “very good and productive” discussions with Iranian counterparts. Brent crude initially plunged over 14% to ~$96 before retracing part of the decline.

However, Iranian state‑linked media denied any dialogue with the U.S., characterizing the comments as “psychological warfare,” and reiterated that Iran will continue its defensive responses and that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre‑war conditions. The session ultimately closed with conflicting signals and lingering uncertainty, leaving markets on alert. 

Arabica flat price found support near session lows just below 391 basis May, managing to close above the 50‑day moving average (304.71) while still falling short of the 100‑day (316.83). The 315–320 resistance band remains a critical area to watch, with origin seeking the next leg higher to price inventory and with notable open interest concentration in May 320 options (2,377 Calls and 1,171 Puts).

Commercial activity today was heavily weighted toward book‑squaring, evident in elevated EFP (AA) volumes following the recent rally. The Brazilian real strengthened 1.54% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 5.23, adding some support to coffee flat price.

Nearby spreads traded mixed, though the broader structure remains firm:

May/July closed 35 points lower at +7.05
July/September gained 80 points to +12.75
September/December strengthened 120 points to +11.20

The following CSO spread traded today: Coffee “C” 1‑Month CSO – NYCC – Dec26 7.50/20.00 call spread, with paper buying 1,000 lots at 2.25.

Robusta futures also ended lower, though essentially unchanged on the day after dipping to 3587 basis May and closing just beneath the 20‑day moving average (3644).

Spreads were mixed:
Robusta May/July closed $11 lower at +82
July/September firmed to +74

Certified stocks continued to draw down, falling 46 lots to 4,211 as of today’s close.

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

55,993

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

23,474

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

365

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
  • Coffee

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