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Daily Coffee Report 7/27/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures closed higher today to start the week, with a strong open in NY flat price setting the tone for the session in early trade. September Arabica traded as much as 19.65 cents higher, reaching 333.45, while the UZ spread was up as much as 810 points at the session high of 24.15 premium. Volume in the terminal market rose today, reaching 46,367 lots, above the 10-day moving average of 39,380. The size of the intraday rally brought some volume back to the market, with buy stops triggered through key levels and some origin selling coming online as producers sought to take advantage of the rally.

EFP volumes continue to be minimal, however, and we continue to see open interest in both Arabica and London spot contracts holding steady — 60,313 lots and 47,795 lots as of Friday's close in Arabica and Robusta, respectively. The market still has plenty of questions following Friday's COT report as we approach the start of the main index fund rolling window next week. Today's move undoubtedly put some pressure on the non-commercial short, which showed 13,026 contracts on Friday's report, but the bigger question centers on the non-commercial long of 37,892 lots and its intentions ahead of the switch to the December contract.

Certified stock draws in the NY terminal continue to support spot prices in the meantime, while the recent heavy rainfall across Brazil remains a key talking point — not only for the 26/27 crop but also for its effect on the development cycle of the 27/28 harvest. An excerpt from StoneX's weekly coffee report below:

In several localities of southern Minas Gerais, the total recorded in just one week equaled or even exceeded the historical average for the whole month of July. The rainfall observed since June accelerated the evolution of the flower buds and favored the first flowerings in areas of São Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and the Cerrado Mineiro, partially bringing forward the reproductive calendar of the 2027/28 crop. The early onset of the reproductive cycle is not in itself a negative factor for the crop. The main point of attention is that it increases dependence on weather conditions over the coming months.

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

46,367

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

16,309

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

834

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
  • Coffee

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