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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-12-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Following early session losses of more than 5%, spot month prices turned positive Wednesday afternoon as forecasters continue to predict a cold end to January.  A pattern change in the weather is expected during the 11-15 day period.  Above normal temps across the East are expected to fade while below normal temps expand in coverage across the Southwest.  Feb futures settled up 3.2 cents at $3.671.

 

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Given the very mild start to 2023, today’s storage report is expected to show stocks fell just 13 BCF in the week ended Jan 6.  This compares to last year’s draw of 157 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 157 BCF.  If correct, stocks would drop to 2.878 TCF, 5.4% below last year and 2.2% below the 5 yr avg. 

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Output has been variable this week, coming in this morning at 97.6 BCF/day.  Month to date, production has averaged 97.8 BCF/day which is up 3.6 BCF/day year over year.  Platts is forecasting output will average 97.7 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.

 

 

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Prices are on the rise this morning in anticipation of a shift to colder weather from the West to the Midwest for Jan 22-26.

While not yet official, the latest talk regarding Freeport now suggests a partial restart will not occur until the 2nd half of February.

 

Technical Analysis
 
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The spot February 23 natural gas contract briefly broke out under 3.500 support on Wednesday as it reached a 3.422 morning low.

Late day buying rallied the contract back over this support by session’s close as it finished the day up .032 at 3.671.

Wednesday failed breakout has been followed by renewed buying today rallying the February contract higher by 3%.

The 10 day moving average at 3.960 is near term resistance followed by the 4.128 weekly high.  A breakout above both areas of resistance will turn the near term and possibly long term trend back up.

A close under 3.500 will keep the market in a bearish downtrend with 3.000 and 2.400-2.500 being the next areas of longer term support.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 34.88

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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