

Nat gas prices settled higher Wednesday, finally closing over the $4 level. Support stemmed from colder weather forecasts and expectations for back to back hefty storage withdrawals. Weather outlooks shifted slightly colder for the 11-15 day period, reversing Tuesday’s outlook. Including today’s EIA report, stocks are likely to tumble well over 600 BCF through the week ended Jan 24. The Feb contract closed at a 2 year settlement high of $4.083, up 11.5 cents on the day.

Today’s storage report is expected to show a much larger than normal draw of 255 BCF for the week ended Jan 10. This compares to last year’s draw of 150 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 128 BCF. If correct, stocks would fall to 3.118 TCF, or 2.6% above the 5 yr avg. Early withdrawal estimates for the week ending Jan 17 range from 195 BCF to 269 BCF with an average draw of 240 BCF. This compares to the 5 yr avg pull of 167 BCF.
A brief warm up that is expected to last for the next few days is weighing on demand. Total usage is down 13.6 BCF/day today at 139.8 BCF/day. Heating demand accounts for 8.5 BCF/day of the decline with power burn making up another 3.4 BCF/day. Consumption is expected to spike back up as the eastern US will turn bitterly cold Sunday thru Tuesday with lows dropping to below zero across many cities. Platts projects the next 7 days will see demand average 15.92 BCF/day.

LNG feedgas flows have improved this morning, coming in at 16 BCF/day versus Wednesday’s level of 15.5 BCF/day. Early week issues at Freeport and Sabine Pass appear to have been resolved. Feedgas flows this month are averaging 15 BCF/day, 0.4 BCF/day higher than December’s high.
The Feb contract is currently trading about 5 cents as the market prepares for a huge storage withdrawal.
Technical Analysis

After failing on three attempts over the past three weeks, the spot February 25 natural gas contract was finally able to close above 4.000 resistance on Wednesday settling the day at 4.083, up .115 (2.9%).
Monday’s 4.369 high is the next area of resistance followed by the November 2014 weekly high at 4.544. Longer term resistance is the November 2018 weekly high at 4.929.
4.000 is now near term support followed by the 10 day moving average at 3.795.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -62.31






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